Iran's Summer of Unrest

Yoshie Furuhashi furuhashi.1 at osu.edu
Fri Jul 21 11:41:58 PDT 2000


From: "Ulhas Joglekar" <ulhasj at bom4.vsnl.net.in> To: <marxism at lists.panix.com> Subject: Iran's Summer of Unrest Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2000 19:50:53 +0530

Iran's Summer of Unrest 0019 GMT, 000714

Summary

In the midst of a drought and a crippling summer heat wave, Iran is wracked by protest and violence. But more than a reaction to the weather or the lack of water, Iranians appear to be reacting to unmet expectations for progress. President Mohammad Khatami has succeeded in clearing the way for limited political expression -- like protest -- but he has not yet improved the country's standard of living. For the first time, significant numbers of everyday Iranians are aiming protests at the reformist president.

Analysis

Two men were stabbed July 11 in a fight over drinking water in Qom. The violence in Iranís most revered religious center was shocking but not isolated. The stabbing was merely the latest in a string of protests and violence in Iran. In the midst of a severe drought and summer heat wave, tension is running high in Iranian society.

Increasingly, this tension is manifesting itself in popular dissatisfaction with the government of President Mohammad Khatami. Khatami has been successful in improving the personal freedoms of Iranians, including the freedom to protest. But Khatami's economic reforms have not yet taken root, which puts him in a dangerous situation.

In the last three weeks, Iranians have taken to the streets in significant numbers. Some 4,000 demonstrators blocked a highway south of Tehran on June 27 to protest the government's failure to provide water, electricity and medical care to their district. A week later, at least three people were killed in a riot in Abadan -- a hub of Iran's oil industry -- as people demanded clean drinking water, according to IRNA, the official Iranian news agency.

And on July 8, a student rally meant to mark the first anniversary of pro-democracy rallies was not only directed at conservative political factions but at President Khatami himself. Protestors chanted "Khatami, Khatami, show your power or resign," and "Khatami, this is the final notice," according to reports published in the London-based daily, The Guardian.

For the first time, the president himself has been a target of the protests. Clearly, the summer weather -- reaching up to 122 degrees Fahrenheit during the day -- is aggravating conditions, but Iranians are taking to the streets in more significant numbers than ever before, just to protest basic living conditions.

Before this year, there was only one major drought protest, in 1995. Protestors were severely repressed by security forces, which reportedly killed dozens and arrested at least 800. The most recent protests were met with force, but the body counts were much lower, as police appeared to pull punches.

The protests highlight Khatami's dilemma. His political reforms have been relatively successful. Open dissent is grudgingly tolerated, and reformist newspapers pop up as fast as conservative factions can close them. But the presidentís economic reforms have yet to get off the ground. Until this year, a conservative parliament blocked much of his economic legislation, and foreign investors have been reluctant to set up shop. Officially, unemployment hovers around 15 percent; unofficial numbers are nearly double that.

Khatami's problem is one of unmet expectations. Iranians elected him in 1997 in a landslide, because he promised to open society and fix the economy. Last winter, voters gave him a parliamentary majority. And the price of oil -- which makes up the lion's share of Iranís GDP -- has been more than $25 a barrel since last November.

But the president is unable to meet popular expectations as quickly as they rise. Iran still has a crumbling infrastructure and polluted waters; in Abadan, people were protesting because the water is too salty to drink. The water has always been salty, actually. But now the people have the means to express anger.

Khatami is in a tough situation. At the strategic level, conservative factions of the clergy, still entrenched in the judiciary and the bureaucracy, hamper him. At a tactical level, the president doesn't have a good way to pacify the people. Khatami can't simply buy more water, the way the United States can buy more oil. Simply suppressing the protestors will undermine his credibility. This gives conservatives ample opportunity to press the advantage.

Hemmed in by his own ideology, and facing pressure from inside and outside the government, Khatami has little choice but to bear down on his agenda. He will try to keep oil prices high and increase foreign investment, while hoping that his credibility with Iranians does not run out. Without a lifting of sanctions and a wave of foreign investment, his time is short, and his prospects dim.

© 2000 Stratfor, Inc. All rights reserved.



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list