>it is surprising to hear Russian talked on the
>underground these days
[apropos of which...]
New York Times - July 24, 2000
40 Percent in New York City Are Foreign-Born, Study Finds By BRUCE LAMBERT
A human tidal wave has added one million immigrants to New York City in the last decade, propelling foreign-born residents to 40 percent of the population, an analysis of United States Census Bureau figures shows.
That level of immigration has not been equaled for nearly a century. As recently as 1990, the figure for foreign-born residents was 28 percent.
The new figures come not from the 2000 census, whose results will not be known until next year. Instead, they are derived from the recently released results of a 15,417-household survey taken in 1999 by the Census Bureau. That study is done every three years to see if housing vacancies are below 5 percent, the legal threshold for continuing rent regulation. Because the sample is large and the bureau conducts the survey, the data are considered highly reliable. They jibe with the census, which is undertaken every 10 years.
"It's really a preview of the full census," said Dr. Andrew A. Beveridge, a sociologist at Queens College who analyzes census data.
Although the surge has been evident for years, its sheer size is stunning. "Boy, that is some number -- wow, wow!" said Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, co-author of "Beyond the Melting Pot," a 1963 treatise on race and ethnicity in the city.
"It's an enriching experience for us," Mr. Moynihan said. "It's wonderful -- I mean, we have to think of it that way. If we think of it any other way, it won't be."
Without immigration, for example, New York's overall population would be shrinking. Instead, the stream of people from around the world is offsetting the loss of city residents to death and relocation to the suburbs and other regions. The result has been a modest net gain of about 130,000 since 1990, to an estimated total of 7.4 million last year.
"Absent immigration, we would be seeing a very different New York, with neighborhood abandonment and depopulation," said Dr. Philip Kasinitz, a sociology professor at Hunter College. Dr. William H. Frey, a demographer at the State University of New York at Albany, said, "These groups are revitalizing and re-energizing these neighborhoods."
Similar flows from abroad are bolstering the population of other major cities across the nation, although New York has had the largest influx. A big difference, however, is that other places have ethnically concentrated immigration, such as the Cubans in Miami, while the new New Yorkers are extraordinarily diverse by race and nationality. "This is a region that is going to continue to be very different from any other areas of the country," Dr. Frey said.
City Planning Commission officials declined to be interviewed about the findings. An agency spokeswoman, Jennifer Chait, voiced caution. "These projections are based on data that is incomplete and inadequate for drawing significant conclusions," she said. "Our expectations are that the definitive Census 2000 data will show a substantial increase in New York City foreign-born population but not to as nearly as high as 40 percent."
But Dr. Beveridge said his figures were actually conservative. The Census Bureau sample showed that 44 percent of heads of households were foreign born. Estimating the figure for the entire city, he reduced the percentage to adjust for factors like children of immigrants being born here. The margin of error is 0.8 of a percentage point, he said. He also noted that the planning agency itself had estimated immigration at 100,000 a year, which in 10 years adds up to one million.
Further, official statistics undercount immigrants who decline to respond because of language barriers, wariness of the government or concern about the legality of their immigration, jobs or housing. Immigration data also exclude native Puerto Ricans, who are American citizens, though it can be argued that by language, culture and geography, they have much in common with immigrants.
Dr. Beveridge's findings were backed by two other experts. Dr. John Mollenkopf, director of the Urban Research Center at the City University of New York's Graduate Center, said, "That's consistent with what other sources, like the current population survey, are showing," referring to yet another Census Bureau sampling. His work on that survey indicates that 54 percent of children through the age of 18 are either foreign born or have foreign-born parents. "Well over half the kids are not native stock," he said.
And Dr. Aristide R. Zolberg, director of New School University's International Center for Migration, Ethnicity and Citizenship, said he used a 40 percent estimate for the immigrant population.
Not since 1910 has New York's percentage of foreign-born residents been so high. That era of immigration, through the halls of Ellis Island, transformed the city and sparked debates over the role of newcomers that still echo today. To house the last wave, a staggering 600,000 dwellings were built in the 1920's. Radicalized newcomers enlivened local politics. And sweatshop exploitation of immigrants, spotlighted by the fatal fire at the Triangle Shirtwaist factory in 1911, galvanized the labor movement.
"We never dreamed that New York would again become a major city of immigrants, but then the immigration laws changed in 1965," said Mr. Moynihan's co-author, Dr. Nathan Glazer of Harvard University.
The latest tide continues unabated into the new century.
Experts say the current wave was accelerated by the enticing economic boom and New York's refurbished image as a safer, cleaner city. And there is the age-old tradition of new arrivals following the footsteps of friends and relatives to ethnic enclaves throughout the five boroughs.
Immigration is as old as the city itself. Back in 1643, when New York was called New Amsterdam, the 500 residents spoke 18 languages.
Major ethnic shifts within the current immigration wave are changing the city's makeup. Dr. Beveridge's estimates show that New Yorkers born in the former Soviet Union, who numbered 81,000 in 1990, had nearly tripled to 229,000 by 1999. Other fast-growing groups include Mexicans, who nearly quadrupled to 133,000 in 1999 from 35,000 in 1990, and South Asians from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, who more than doubled to 146,000 in 1999 from 67,000 in 1990.
Continuing to climb as a major Hispanic group, the number of Dominicans rose by more than two-thirds, to 387,000 in 1999 from 230,000 in 1990. (The number of Puerto Ricans born on the island dropped 21 percent to 290,000 in 1999, from 367,000 in 1990. Adding those born on the mainland, Puerto Ricans here totaled 744,000 last year, an 11 percent drop from 834,000 in 1990.)
The statistics confirm the changing face of the city witnessed on the streets every day by native New Yorkers, themselves descended from earlier immigrants. Mexican shops are sprouting in western Queens, Middle Eastern businesses now compete with the Greek establishments of Astoria, and very little of Italy is left in Little Italy, where Chinese-Americans are the absolute majority and Hispanics have been jostling for second place.
"Gateway to America," says the welcoming sign at Kennedy International Airport in Queens. So many newcomers have stepped off and made their home in that borough that its 167 nationalities and 116 languages make it the nation's most diverse county. But immigration "certainly poses challenges and pressures," Dr. Glazer said.
Some experts call for a strategic plan for dealing with immigration. "We need to get out in front and plan and strive to do better," said Michael H. Schill, a professor at New York University.
Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has often voiced support for immigrants. His press office did not return calls seeking comment from him and from the immigrant affairs office on the latest figures.
Immigration has produced tensions. The visiting baseball pitcher John Rocker made his distaste well known. One man paid for anti-immigration billboards, and City Councilwoman Julia Harrison of Queens objected to Chinese and Korean business signs without English translations.
Most experts say that immigrants are a plus for the city. Although many may be dependent when they arrive, Professor Schill said, "that rapidly changes as they move up the ladder and contribute more in taxes than they consume." He added, "Immigrants tend to be very resourceful, or they wouldn't be here in the first place."