Draining the Social Security Trust Fund

[Max Sawicky]

. . . As you all know, in 2015 the balance goes negative, -0.1% of OASDI
taxable payroll.  This is the year that the number of baby boomer retirees
catches up with Social Security income. 0.1% is the amount that will be
taken from the Trust Fund.

You should distinguish more clearly a deficit in the flows
to one in the balance.  As you note later, 2015 is a deficit
in terms of flows -- expenses exceed income.  The Fund has a
positive balance till 2030-something.  In principle, it is only
then that revenues or benefits would need to be changed to
finance the program.  (You won't find it in the Actuaries
reports, but the Unified Budget is projected to have enough
revenues to supplement the Trust Fund, without going into deficit,
until 2050.)

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has put out papers
quantifying the effect of the 2% carve-out on the Trust Fund.
The author is Peter Orszag.  Recommended.

As I've said before, it would be giving away too much to call
the Bush prop a "plan."

mbs