> Florida fares poorly in global warming study
>
> By DAVID FLESHLER [Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel] Staff Writer
> Web-posted: 11:03 p.m. June 12, 2000
>
> South Florida would suffer more than most other parts of the United
> States if global temperatures continue to rise, according to the first
> extensive federal study of the subject.
>
> In a region-by-region assessment of the possible effects of global
> warming, the federal government found that impact would vary widely.
> Northern areas of the United States, for example, may enjoy milder
> winters, longer growing seasons and bigger harvests. But South
> Florida's future could be worse, according to the report.
>
> "The South Florida region is vulnerable to multiple climate-change
> stresses, as sea-level rise, changes in the frequency of freezing
> events, hurricanes, droughts and associated fire, sea surface
> temperatures and many others all affect the full diversity of
> ecosystems," the report states, in a section titled "South Florida Case
> Study."
>
> The report was ordered by Congress in 1990 and performed by
> several federal agencies working with dozens of outside scientists. It
> was based on computer projections of hotter climates over the next
> 100 years. A draft of the report was published Monday on the Internet
> at www.nacc.usgcrp.gov
>
> Global temperatures have risen about 1 degree in the past century.
> Many scientists believe temperatures will continue to rise, as humans
> burn coal, gasoline and other fuels. These fuels produce carbon
> dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" that are suspected of trapping
> the sun's heat within the atmosphere.
>
> In the past 100 years, as the temperature climbed, sea levels have
> risen 4 to 8 inches. The report projects that they will rise 5 to 40
> inches more by the year 2100.
>
> A rise in the sea levels would not flood Miami Beach or Fort
> Lauderdale, said Tom Karl, director of the Climate Data Center of the
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and co-chairman of
> the committee that wrote the report. These cities can continue to
> build sea walls and renourish beaches to protect their waterfront
> hotels and restaurants, even though it would be expensive, he said.
>
> More likely are other problems: A higher sea level would drown
> mangrove forests that protect and nurture young marine life. It would
> allow saltwater to intrude more deeply into the groundwater, killing
> coastal forests and threatening wells. It would lead to more-powerful
> storm surges during hurricanes.
>
> But not all of the report's authors believe the oceans will rise that
> far.
>
> "I don't think that the sea level is going to rise to the level that
> some of the zealots are projecting," said Jim O'Brien, a meteorologist
> at Florida State University who helped write the section on the
> Southeastern United States. "If your grandkid born today inherits
> some property in the Keys, it's still going to be there."
>
> And there may be some good news for Florida in the report. Higher
> temperatures could bring more frequent occurrences of El Nino, a
> warming over the Pacific Ocean that could reduce the number of
> hurricanes that menace the state.
>
> "All the predictions say we should have more El Ninos," O'Brien
> said. "If we have more El Ninos, we kill hurricanes in the Atlantic. The
> bad news is that the planet has to have hurricanes, so the poor
> Japanese and Filipinos will have more typhoons."
>
> Not all the report's authors believe that global warming will mean
> fewer hurricanes. And some believe the hurricanes that do form will
> bring more destruction, due to heavier rains and stronger storm
> surges.
>
> "Whether there are more storms or fewer storms is just too difficult
> to project," Karl said. "The rainfall associated with those storms is
> likely to be significantly greater than what we see now."
>
> South Florida's temperatures would rise less than most other parts
> of the country. The report projects that summer temperatures in the
> Southeastern United States will go up by 2.3 to 5 degrees by the year
> 2030. But the area's summer heat index, a combination of
> temperature and humidity, would rise by 8 to 15 degrees, making life
> in the outdoors more difficult during the hot season, according to the
> report. Cities would be hotter, and the increased heat could worsen
> smog.
>
> While human creations, such as farms and cities, will likely be able
> to handle hotter climates, natural ecosystems may be more
> vulnerable, according to the report. Coral reefs are likely to weaken.
> The Everglades, an extremely sensitive ecosystem, could suffer
> additional stress if higher temperatures alter rain patterns, according
> to the report.
>
> David Fleshler can be reached at dfleshler at sun-sentinel.com or
> 954-356-4535.