MOST CIVIL CONFLICTS MOTIVATED BY GREED, SAYS WORLD BANK.
Rebels fighting civil conflicts around the world are more often motivated by greedy pursuit of lucrative commodities, like diamonds and drugs, than by political, ethnic or religious goals, the New York Times (p.A14) reports a World Bank study released yesterday concludes. The Bank, which studied 47 civil wars that took place from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe between 1960 and 1999, found that the single biggest risk factor for the outbreak of war was a nation's economic dependence on commodities.
Eagerness to profit from coffee, narcotics, diamonds and other gemstones prompts outbreaks of violence and determines their strength over time, the study says. "Diamonds are the guerrilla's best friend," Paul Collier, author of the study and director of research at the World Bank, is quoted as saying. "Civil wars are far more likely to be caused by economic opportunities than by grievance."
The report points to numerous specific examples. Sierra Leone's civil war is primarily about the control of diamond mines in that nation. Collier likened the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia's rebel group to a sizable narcotics corporation, with 12,000 paid fighters and $700 million in annual revenues from drug trafficking.
Rebels typically claim that they are fighting their governments to right religious, ethnic and political wrongs, the study says, but those are often either coincidental or after-the-fact justifications for war. The study suggests that many rebel groups are no more moved by ideological aims than the Mafia is.
By analyzing a database of civil conflicts, the study found that the degree of social inequality, the openness of the political system and even the extent of ethnic diversity are poor predictors of civil war. Not all commodity-rich nations are embattled-geography, education levels and per capita income matter greatly-but the availability of commodities to plunder is their single biggest common problem.
Additionally, notes Dow Jones, Collier found that nations with low education rates, a highly dispersed population, limited ethnic or religious diversity, and a well-established community of expatriates abroad-to provide another funding link-are the most fertile breeding grounds for rebellion. "Empirically, the risk of rebellion is strongly linked to three economic conditions: dependence upon primary commodity exports, low average income of the country, and slow growth," his report argues.
To thwart the outbreak of civil wars, the international community-including the World Bank-can take a number of steps, Collier noted. First, they can thwart the financing of rebel movements by shutting down the market for the commodities from rebel movements, such as De Beers is now seeking to do in the African diamond market. Second, well-directed international loans and aid should be provided to boost living conditions in poor countries to remove the threat of potential unrest. And lastly, poor countries should be encouraged to take all steps to boost their economic growth, which should boost jobs and income, reducing the chances that rebel movements will have a large pool of unemployed to draw upon for new recruits.
The Washington Post (p.E3) also reports on steps that can be taken to reduce the occurrence of wars. Countries should diversify their economies and visibly channel commodity income into social service programs, to undermine public support for rebels who seize the mines and farmlands. The world community, meanwhile, can help by refusing to do business with rebel groups.
Reuters, the Financial Times, El Pais, Japan Economic Newswire, the Australian Financial Review (p.39), BBC Television, BBC Radio, Voice of America, Radio France International, United Nations Radio, National Geographic.com, and Belgian Television also report.