>Inside the Celtic Tiger: The Irish Economy and the Asian Model, Denis
>O'Hearn, Pluto Press, 1998
>
>Which I reviewed for Revolution, as follows:
O'Hearn's book contains some useful discussion but like the review of it posted here it sufferes from the inital left/republican reaction to the boom - that of denial. We were so used to high unemployment alongside government talk of recovery that for a long time people on the left assummed the Celtic Tiger was just another marketing trick.
At this point in time when unemployment in the south has fallen to 5% (from what was probably 15 - 20% in the late 1980's but offically around 12%) and in Dublin to 4% its pretty obvious that something 'real' has happened. The task is to explain this rather then to deny it. The explanation is simple enough, low wages, low corporate tax and a handy entry point into Europe for US capital. I go into the figures in 199
>O'Hearn shows that the South's growth falls well below that of the East
>Asian tigers, averaging around 4 per cent a year in the first half of
>the decade compared to an East Asian average in excess of twice that.
>Moreover East Asian tigers earned the name for sustained growth over
>thirty years ...
This is out of date in that the later part of the decade did indeed show 8-10% growth. Whether this can go on for 30 years or not is of course another question but a more accurate comparison with the Assian tigers is how the left also had great problems in recognising the reality of these. The GDP/GNP debate is also real enough but again doesn't explain away the tiger.
>From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
>I'm all for skepticism about the Celtic Tiger, but hasn't the human
>traffic reversed? Instead of losing population to net emigration,
>aren't former emigrants returning, and natives staying? That would
>suggest that it's not all hot air and statistical artifact.
Actually last years figures showed about 30,000 left but around 70,000 arrived. I think the real issue around the Tiger in Ireland is that although it means more employment and higher wages for nearly everyone for the average worker the wage gains have been undermined by things like the rise in the cost of housing (20 a year over the last decade). This is part of the reason why 30,000 left (not that much lower then emmigration rates in the 1980's.).
Andrew
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