> According to Tainter, the vicious circle sets in
> when worsening economic
> crisis is "solved" by new efforts at
> complexification (or other misguided,
> short-term solutions) that exacerbate the crisis
> further, followed by yet
> more complexification, and so on, and before you
> know it the whole project
> of civilization falls to pieces. His discussion of
> the Western Roman Empire
> in this context is extremely persuasive, not to
> mention just a little
> unsettling.
>
I've just finished William McNiell's "Plagues and Peoples", and he has a slightly different take. He notes that, due to infectious diseases, cities up until very recently were extremly high mortality places which needed constant inflow of immigrants to maintain population. In this view, any premodern civilization was balanced rather precariously, waiting for a new epidemic to tip the balance toward depopulation... Overall, a fascinating book that I would highly recommend.
Jim Baird
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