Kalecki's political business cycle

Max Sawicky sawicky at epinet.org
Sat Mar 18 15:45:49 PST 2000



>[mbs] ??????
>Which planet are you referring to?
>Or does "basically stagnant" mean "increasing"?

By all accounts wage increases should have been much more substantial in this tight labor market. You have to explain why they have indeed been relatively stagnant in this sense.

[mbs] "More substantial" than what? And by whose account? How much growth should we be having, and on what basis?


>[mbs] Actually the novel feature of the past 2-3 years
>is the gains at the bottom.

Gains in income or wages?

[mbs] WAGES!!


>>>>>>> If bottom 20% is enjoying greater income in
absolute terms, this may only mean a move out of unemployment into employment where they are now producing surplus value for employers. This kind of income gain is not a problem for capital.

Wages may also increase if workers are provided more expensive capital to work with in this investment boom since capitalists now need continuous work effort to amortize the investment and pay higher wages for effort and care. But since workers are now producing more relative surplus value due to use of equipment, such a wage increase is quite the opposite of a problem for capitalists. It means a rise in the rate of exploitation.

I haven't seen much proof that businesses have been facing rising unit labor costs due to wage increases.
>>>>>>>>

[mbs] Where have you looked? Did I forget to tell you that wages have gone up?


>>>>>>>
Oil prices are now more important as a cost problem. . . .
>>>>>>>

[mbs] how do you know?


>>>>>>
Since you are the numbers man, I would hope that you would clarify what gains are you referring to: absolute and/or relative gains in *income* for the bottom 20 or 40% of the population or *wage* increases or *unit labor cost* increases or attentuation of the *rate of exploitation* (which is unobservable).
>>>>>>>>

[mbs] I'm not really much of a numbers person. Check our web site if you want to see the data. Or maybe Doug will take pity on you.


>
>[mbs] G-span is "choking borrowing"?

He doesn't want people to borrow too much on the basis of portfolio gains and spend like mad. Wasn't this Gspan's recent theory of consumption racing ahead of productivity gains that justified rate hike? Yours, Rakesh
>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[mbs] How much borrowing has been "choked"? You may round off to the nearest ten billion.

mbs



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