Clintonoids Serve Up Mud Pie Analysis

[Andrew English]

There is considerable anecdotal evidence of employer threats to move
production to Mexico if workers vote to unionize.  Whether it adds
up to a rigorous proof of an effect is another question.   It is hard to
separate
the effects of particular trade policies from the up and downs of the
economic cycle.

Whatever the economic data may say, the gut instinct of most trade unionists
that
NAFTA was a bad deal and the line-up of
corporate America behind trade liberalization is pretty good evidence to me
that
NAFTA certainly didn't help the working class.

On the economic cycle:
Real wage growth was weak or nonexistent up until 1996.  Concerns about
downsizing dominated the working class agenda through 1997.   I think the
popular perception of unqualified economic good times didn't set in till
1998-99.    Now in the year 2000, the class is finally starting to show some
signs
of becoming more assertive and wanting a bigger piece of the pie after the
gloominess and defeatism that started with the 1979-82 downturn and the
decade
of concessions.  Which is where Alan Greenspan comes in with the interest
rate hikes to save us all from the horror of rising wages.

How will the working class respond to the next recession? Are people going
to
be pissed off that the party ended just as it was getting good and fight
back?  Or will we see
a return to defeatism and wage freezes?  A lot depends on how severe the
recession is
and how prolonged.

-Andy English

-----Original Message-----
From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
Date: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 1:41 PM
Subject: Re: Clintonoids Serve Up Mud Pie Analysis


>Andrew  English wrote:
>
>>I think the issue is more the composition of the workforce rather than
>>the level of unemployment.  Without trade liberalization of the last few
>>years, more of the working class
>>would still be higher-wage, more unionized manufacturing sectors and less
of
>>it in the low-wage, mostly non-union
>>private service sectors (retail, etc).
>
>But the average real hourly wage has risen - and not just the
>average, but across the entire distribution, for both men & women.
>This looks like a reversal of the 1973-95 slide, and reflects changes
>in composition. The black unemployment rate is at a record low; ditto
>the black poverty rate. I think the case that NAFTA damaged the U.S.
>working class isn't as easy to make as people seem to think.
>
>Doug