Social Security Econometric Help Needed

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu May 25 09:50:35 PDT 2000


John K. Taber wrote:


>Is this saying that the historical GDP growth has been adjusted
>for the new CPI? And that the effect is to make the historical
>GDP growth higher?

Yup. Here's a comparison of the 5-year average growth rates in the old series, based on 1992 dollars, and the revision, based on 1996 dollars with the new techniques:

new (96$) old (92$) 1950-55 4.48% 4.43% 1955-60 2.34% 2.49% 1960-65 4.96% 4.95% 1965-70 3.40% 3.35% 1970-75 2.68% 2.66% 1975-80 3.76% 3.56% 1980-85 3.15% 2.90% 1985-90 3.27% 2.88% 1990-95 2.43% 1.96% 1995-2000 4.28%

The 1995-2000 figure assumes that growth for all of 2000 will continue at the 1999Q1-2000Q1 rate.

Doug



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