-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Michael Pugliese Enviada em: domingo, 28 de maio de 2000 15:59 Para: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Assunto: CIA -- The World Factbook 1999 -- Belarus- Economy section
CIA -- The World Factbook 1999 -- Belarus Hopefully the CIA is better at this than they used to be, as in the Team A and Team B scandal, about estimating the former Soviet Union's military expenditures and overall size of the economy during Gerald Ford's Presidency and George Bush'es CIA directorship. Didn't "Team B" full of those Commitee on the Present Danger neo-cons, say the Soviet economy was twice it's real size, or some such? There is a South End Press book by a Jerry Sanders on the CPD. If anyone has handy, give us a summary.
Michael Pugliese
Economy—overview: Belarus has seen little structural reform since 1995, when President LUKASHENKO launched the country on the path of "market socialism". In keeping with this policy, LUKASHENKO re-imposed administrative controls over prices and currency exchange rates and expanded the state's right to intervene in the management of private enterprise. This produced a climate hostile to private business, inhibiting domestic and foreign investment. The Government of Belarus has artificially revived economic output since mid-1996 by pursuing a policy of rapid credit expansion. In a vain attempt to keep the rapidly rising inflation in check, the government placed strict price controls on food and consumer products, which resulted in food shortages. Long lines for dairy products, chicken, and pork became common in the closing months of 1998. With the goal of slowing down the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, LUKASHENKO in 1997 introduced a new, complex system of legal buying/selling hard currencies. The new "command" system proved to be totally unworkable and resulted in galloping devaluation. In addition to the burdens imposed on businesses by high inflation and an artificial currency regime, businesses have also been subject to pressure on the part of central and local governments, e.g., arbitrary changes in regulations, numerous rigorous inspections, and retroactive application of new business regulations prohibiting practices that had been legal. A further economic problem is the sizable trade deficit. GDP: purchasing power parity—$53.7 billion (1998 est.) GDP—real growth rate: 7% (1998 est.) GDP—per capita: purchasing power parity—$5,200 (1998 est.) GDP—composition by sector: agriculture: 20% industry: 43% services: 37% (1997 est.) Population below poverty line: 77% (1997 est.) Household income or consumption by percentage share: lowest 10%: 4.9% highest 10%: 19.4% (1993) Inflation rate (consumer prices): 182% (1998) Labor force: 4.3 million (1998) Labor force—by occupation: industry and construction 40%, agriculture and forestry 19%, services 41% (1997 est.) Unemployment rate: 2.3% officially registered unemployed (December 1998); large number of underemployed workers Budget: revenues: $4 billion expenditures: $4.1 billion, including capital expenditures of $180 million (1997 est.) Industries: tractors, metal-cutting machine tools, off-highway dump trucks up to 110-metric-ton load capacity, wheel-type earth movers for construction and mining, eight-wheel-drive, high-flotation trucks with cargo capacity of 25 metric tons for use in tundra and roadless areas, equipment for animal husbandry and livestock feeding, motorcycles, television sets, chemical fibers, fertilizer, linen fabric, wool fabric, radios, refrigerators, other consumer goods Industrial production growth rate: 11% (1998 est.) Electricity—production: 26.1 billion kWh (1998) Electricity—production by source: fossil fuel: 99.92% hydro: 0.08% nuclear: 0% other: 0% (1997) Electricity—consumption: 33.7 billion kWh (1997) Electricity—exports: 2.7 billion kWh (1997) Electricity—imports: 10.3 billion kWh (1997) Agriculture—products: grain, potatoes, vegetables, sugar beets, flax; beef, milk Exports: $7 billion (f.o.b., 1998) Exports—commodities: machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, foodstuffs Exports—partners: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Germany Imports: $8.5 billion (c.i.f., 1998) Imports—commodities: fuel, natural gas, industrial raw materials, textiles, sugar, foodstuffs Imports—partners: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Germany Debt—external: $1.03 billion (1998 est.) Economic aid—recipient: $194.3 million (1995) Currency: Belarusian rubel (BR) Exchange rates: Belarusian rubels per US$1—139,000 (25 January 1999 official Belarusian exchange rate), 46,080 (2nd qtr 1998), 25,964 (1997), 15,500 (yearend 1996), 11,500 (yearend 1995), 10,600 (yearend 1994) Fiscal year: calendar year
-There is a contrasense in this data. Belarus GDP per capita is relatively high (close to South Korea and 50% above Russia). The wealth distribution also seems to be very good. The income of 10% richer is less than 5 times the income of 10% poorest (althought this data is from 1993!). So it´s simply impossible that 77% of people live below poverty rates, unless you use very high standards to define poverty (usually defined as income adjusted by purchase power less than US$2 in one day). Just to see an example. Brazil has an GDP per capita close to US$ 4500 with a rate of income of 20-30 between 10% richer and 10% poorer. Despite this, we have 25% of people living in poverty.
Alexandre