> But now that I'm on the subject- North Korea, with only 25 million people,
> fields the world's second largest army: 1,560,000 men, with 3,800 tanks
> (many modern, totally unlike Iraq) and 12,000 guns (good modern Soviet
> design, some of the best in the world), and reserves of 7.4 million in
> spite of widespread food shortages and even famine, North Korea continues
> to expand its conventional forces and weapons of mass destruction.
-What tanks do you consider modern, please? Iraq had T-72´s, then the second better tank of USSR. Is NK equiped with 3800 T-80´s and T-90´s? And what about planes, which are very important in modern war? What I know is that NK Air Force is made from old USSR nad Chinese planes, like the J-6, MIG19, MIG21 and SU22. I would be very surprised if their AF was able to have more than 50 combat ready MIG-29´s at best...and in a very poor state of maintenance
> North Korea, says the paper, has the capability to produce 1-2 nuclear
> weapons(US intelligence says the north already has 3 devices- people I
> trust at Stratfor say up to a half dozen), thousands of tons of chemical
> weapons, biological weapons,and missile delivery systems that cover all of
> South Korea, Japan, and Okinawa.
-This is interesting information, but those weapons are useless against a country who have more than 3,000 devices and can erase NK from the map by clicking a button...
> Most interesting- North Korea is fast enhancing its capability to launch a
> massive surprise attack on the south, backed by widescale use of chemical
> weapons and assaults by its 300,000-man commando force. They have 300,000
> hyper trained and fanatical commandos: three times the number of regular
> troops we have there (37,500).
-Probably this is the worts threat NK poses to SK, but those troops will be launched behind enemy lines. This puts the first question: how to transport all those men without taking massive losses (I suppose NK won´t have air or sea superiority during the invasion)? And once launched, how to supply them???
> And they are continuing building the weapons system despite a massive 4.6
> billion dollar bribe Clinton made in giving the North Koreans, giving them
> heavy water, reactor shielding, food, and endless other doodads.
> And the war would be over before we could get reinforcements in. They
could
> take Seol, stop our troops (called "the road bump in the way to Seol'),
and
> sue for peace on favorable terms to the UN beofre the thing was over.
-Even if they can do it, how will they do to occupy a country that has almost 2 times the NK population and whose people is obviously hostaile to a NK occupation, since SK standards o life are much better?
> THe longer we wait, the stronger they get- their massive biological
warfare
> ststems and nuclear capabulities grow every day, and they could use good
> nukers that reach the US as threat to make sure we don;t tac nuke their
> incoming forces (which is a staple of our defense).
>
> I say we have a 50/50 chance of going to war with them in the next five
> years.
-Only if you want to do this. Those histories of "maniac dictators" is only cold war propaganda. Usually the "maniac dictators" enjoy the good life they have and are not willing to put their lives in risk by starting wars thay can´t win. Even Saddam Hussein only occupied Kuwait because he had a hint from USA that he would be let alone (read Stratfor reports on Iraq, please). It was miscalculation and not madness.
Alexandre