Actually I can vote for Nader without any Gore loss guilt. Virginia is solid for Bush. Also, there will be no Nader Paradox effect in my congressional district as the incumbent Repug is unopposed. There might be one in the local Senate race where centrist Dem Robb is holding on against very nasty and right wing George Allen.
Here is my take on the odds. Even-steven that there will be a complete Repug sweep, White House, Senate, and House of Reps. That might be a difficult scene. In early Reagan period the House was Dem and the Supreme Court a lot more liberal than today. We might be reduced to hoping for filibusters in the Senate if/when Tom DeLay starts demanding that gays eat rat poison.
It is 1.5 to 1 that the Repugs will hold the House of Reps, Nader Paradox effect threatening them there [for pen-lers not on lbo-talk, the Nader Paradox is the idea that Nader could tilt the presidential election to Bush in key states, but could increase Dem votes in House of Reps races thus possibly tilting the House to the Dems].
It is 3 to 1 Bush beats Gore, and 4 to 1 Allen beats Robb in the Senate race here in VA. 8 to 1 the Repugs hold the Senate.
Now for the fun stuff. 1 in 12 that Gore wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote. 1 in 50 that Bush does the same. 1 in 100 that the electoral college ties.
1 in 1000 that the House of Reps ties after the electoral college does so. In that case, the probability that the president is Dennis Hastert is president is 1.5 to 1 against Gephardt being president.
But then we have 1 in 100,000 that the race for House Speaker deadlocks and it goes to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate and thus STROM THURMOND IS ELECTED PRESIDENT! (all hail the POTUS!) Barkley Rosser