Congratulations, Dubya! If our electoral simulation is correct, you're the new prez. This is based on what statisticians call a Monte Carlo simulation, a standard technique in which virtual elections are repeated over and over based on the latest poll intelligence to get an average score. The result? According to our in-house mathematician and polling analyst (read the writeup below): "At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200." Alas, our author can't take the credit he deserves. Because of unrelated, non-political consulting work he does for the government, he wishes to remain anonymous.
Monte Carlo Simulations of the Electoral College Based on Rasmussen Research's State Surveys.
In each state, independent random choices are made for each of the three candidates from probability distributions with means chosen as indicated below and with an appropriate standard deviation about half of the margin of error. This probability distribution is the same one from which the margin of error is computed. The standard deviation for Nader was appropriately scaled to account for his smaller percentage. Finally, the candidate's results are compared and that state's Electoral Votes awarded to the one with larger percentage.
There are two sets of simulations below in which the means are chosen in two different ways. In the first case the mean of the distribution for each candidate and state is the latest survey result, as of Sunday, November 5.
In the second case, the mean is the survey result predicted for November 7 obtained by adding a correction to the last survey result. The correction is the change in the candidate's national trend line between the date of the last survey for that state and a (slightly) extrapolated November 7 value. The trend lines were constructed by eye, and arrive at election day with Bush having 47.5% and Gore 42.5%. The effect is to increase the mean of Bush's distribution relative to Gore's for states last surveyed before the third debate.
The results of 100 simulations of each kind are presented here. Two totals are presented for each candidate in each simulation. The first is the national total, and the second is the total for the ten tossup states where the difference between the candidates is currently 3 points or less.
At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200.
The largest variation is caused by the California result. Since California has 54 electoral votes, and the rest total 94, if one candidate's tossup total is greater than 94, that candidate has won California. This is true
for Bush five times in the first set of 100, and seven times in the second set. Note that the maximum of the tossup totals for Gore is 132. This means that Bush won some trials in which Gore got nearly all of the 148 tossup votes. Half of those times, Bush's total was 400 Electoral Votes or more.
the rest at:
http://www.cluebot.com/article.pl?sid=00/11/06/0520254&mode=nested