Fwd: FW: Vote 2000: Here are the winners

[Doug Henwood]

In case you don't want to wait till tomorrow night, you can look at the
(almost) final predictions of two major polls which provide state-by-state
breakdowns (both use innovative web methodology; don't confuse these with
the junk web polls where anyone can participate):
Knowledge Networks Tracking poll:
http://jackman.stanford.edu/papers/writeup.pdf
Harris Interactive: http://chooseorlose.excite.com/

The first provides a summary table for all 50 states plus DC, the second a
clickable map which will render state results (but Senate races as well as
the Presidential race).

Both polls agree that Gore will win the majority of electoral votes (KN:
280:258; Harris: 286:241 with 11 open) though Bush may win the popular vote
(Harris: 48:46). Note that these numbers may have changed (slightly) by the
time you look as polling still continues.

[In contrast, the Harris-Excite junk web poll, has Bush winning 58:31% as
of this afternoon (3:50pm)]

As to NY, Harris Interactive has Clinton ahead 51:46 in the Senate race,
details:
http://chooseorlose.excite.com/poll/elections/?state=ny

If two surveys using innovative web methodology turn out to be on the
money, this will hasten a profound change in the survey industry and the
demise of telephone surveys. And, maybe, some day even the textbooks will
catch up. M.

Manfred Kuechler, Sociology Department at Hunter College (CUNY)
http://maxweber.hunter.cuny.edu/socio/faculty/kuech.html