Well, unfortunately, kelley is probably right that the absentee ballots, and especially the ones from the military overseas will tend to tilt to Bush. There may be some offset if the Palm Beach screwups are given to Gore, but probably not enough to give it to him. Still looks like Bush in FL and the WH.
But, hey, Bush can pull a Reagan. Have a dandy recession (not toooo bad) early in his first term that he blames on Clinton-Gore and then have a nice recovery in 2003 just in time to have a big win in 2004 against Hillary (who won't take West Virginia either, much less Tennessee or Arkansas... ). Morning in America all over again, or is it getting it to be late afternoon.... ? Barkley Rosser
-----Original Message----- From: Marco Anglesio <mpa at the-wire.com> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Date: Wednesday, November 08, 2000 4:34 PM Subject: Re: Voter Fraud, Warren Christopher etc.
>On Wed, 8 Nov 2000, matt hogan wrote:
>
>> What I want to know is WHY it was reported to the press that Gore
>> had won Florida--way too early.
>
>It wasn't reported *to* the press, but *by* the press. The way the
>forecasting works is like this. The AP and major networks form a press
>consortium which conducts exit polling during the day. It's embargoed
>until the polls closed.
>
>The results and exit polling are combined in a model which gives odds,
>basically, on who should win. As the early results and exit polling were
>both strongly Gore, then the model indicated a Gore win at the very
>beginning, but when Bush recovered it moved back to undecided. When Bush
>opened up a large lead in voting with 95% reporting, the model concluded
>that Gore couldn't catch up and indicated a Bush win. When the margin
>narrowed to five hundred, the model took it back away from Bush and into
>undecided.
>
>> My newspaper says that Bush is the probable winner. But the
>> television media says that we don't know yet. I'm confused.
>
>Your newspaper went to press around 1AM EST, possibly earlier, long before
>Gore closed the gap (around 3AM EST). Most newspapers here indicate a Bush
>win, too - they went with what they have to go on.
>
>Right now, given that absentee ballots have been involved in voter
>irregularities quite recently in florida, I think that Bush has the edge
>but only just. The gap probably will close somewhat, resulting in Bush
>having the legal right to the presidency but only a mild moral right to
>it. (That isn't to say that such issues bother him much, but they
>probably will make him a lame-duck president.)
>
>Marco
>
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>> Marco Anglesio | Hard reality has a way
<
>> mpa at the-wire.com | of cramping your style.
<
>> http://www.the-wire.com/~mpa | --Daniel Dennett
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