Here are my calculations:
Volusia County - 11/7 indicates results reported to CBS news on election day, 11/9 results on the recount
7%V= percentage won in Volusia county (as reported 11/7). 7%S= percentage won in the rest of the state (all counties excluding Volusia). (as reported 11/7).
Highlighted percentages in bold are glaring voting discrepancies that suggest fraud or tabulation error.
11/7: Total Votes= 198,320 (http://elect.cbsig.net/campaign2000results/county/county_flop-0.html) 11/8: Total Votes= 183,256 (http://volusia.org/11-8c-00.htm) MISSING VOTES(!)=15064
GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER
BROWNE
11/7: 97,063 82,214 396 2,436
3,211
7%V: 48.94 41.45 .20 1.23
1.62
7%S: .4708 .4735 .284 1.581
.0262
11/8: 97,063 82,214 496 2,903
442
8%V 52.96 44.863 .2707 1.584
.2412
HAEGLIN HARRIS MCREYNOLDS MOOREHEAD PHILLIPS
33 9,888 3 59
2,927
7%V: .0166 4.99 .0015 .0297
1.48
7%S: .0375 .00973 .02124 .0295
.0227
11/8: 36 8 5 69
20
8%V: .0196 .0044 .00273 .03765
.0109
These seem like really significant numbers. Note that there is no change for Gore or Bush but that the number of reported votes for all of the third party candidates gyrates wildly. It also now looks like there are questionable figures for both Phillips and Harry Browne in this county, as their initial vote totals look inflated as well.
Most importantly, 15,000 votes have somehow gone missing from this county. That is huge news and none of the networks are reporting it.
Oh, and by the way, the official word from the Volusia County canvassing board is that:
The Canvassing Board for Volusia County's general election
completed the state mandated recount of the Presidential vote
at 8 p.m., Wednesday, November 8. There were no changes in
the unofficial returns in the Presidential race.
I think that it is clear to any observer that there are major changes in the unofficial returns from this county. An explanation needs to be given.
The following explanation shows why it is likely that these votes will go to Gore:
James Harris running in Florida. He's really obscure (the definition of an also-ran). It doesn't appear that he has done any campaigning to speak of across the state. There is no reason to believe that any measurable fraction of the popluation even knows that he is on the ballot. The results from other counties support this. Across the state he gets maybe 10, 20, 30, votes a county (and that's being generous - he does really terribly in some counties) - EXCEPT for Volusia county. This is important. If you take Volusia county out of the picture and calculate the percentage of the population who voted for him statewide (again, this is exculding Volusia county), Harris gets only .009910% of the vote statewide. As CBS news caught on to this, but hasn't made all the connections yet. (http//cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,247897-412,00.shtml)
"Another possible balloting quirk
was in Volusia Country, where
James E. Harris, an obscure
Socialist candidate, polled 9,888
votes out of his statewide total of
10,471.
State Democratic Party officials
raised concerns that a computer
error may have caused the
outsized ballot for Harris in
Volusia County, south of Daytona
Beach on Florida's East Coast. In
other counties, Harris received 0,
1, or 2 votes."
Take Volusia county out of the picture and run the calculations, he has .009910% of the vote. In Volusia county he picks up an amazing 5% of the vote! That has to be an error! It is virtually impossible that Harris polled 5% (that would be 504 times more than he polled statewide). So what is the explanation? It looks likely that Harris votes are actually Gore votes that haven't been counted. I think that the evidence backs me up on this. ABC news says that when Volusia county reported, Gores numbers shot up, and then fell back by 9,197 votes. (http//www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/ELECTION_WatchdogPart4001107.html)
According to Bob Poe, state chairman for the Florida
Democratic Party, Democrats had received reports of an
instance in which a preliminary voting count this morning
for Gore in Volusia County, reported by Florida election
officials, actually decreased by about 10,000 over time,
before climbing again.
"Now that might have been a typo, who knows," he
told ABCNEWS.com. "Stranger things have happened in
Volusia County."
The alleged decrease may also have been detected by
Miles Gibson, a PhD candidate and instructor at the
University of Virginia, who says he recorded 2,716,995
votes for Gore in Florida at 206 a.m. this morning and
then 2,707,798 votes for Gore at around 215 a.m., while
following a national newscast.
I crunched some numbers. If you take the percentage that people are voting for Harris at the state level for and estimate the number of votes that Harris should get in Volusia county, the number comes out to about 10 votes. So by my predictions that means that there are 9,888 extra Gore votes in the Harris category. The extra votes that Harris has explains the missing 9,000 Gore votes. It also makes sense that the actual missing vote number (as reported above) would be a little less than my predictions. It is likely that not all of the precincts in Volusia had reported when those figures were shot up on the TV.
The recount will show (assuming that someone catches this) that Gore will get 9,888 more votes. That is _well_ more than what he needs to win the election in Florida. These votes would then be the deciding factor _no matter what_ comes in from overseas. Remember that only about 2300 overseas ballots came into Florida in 96. A 9,800 vote margin would give Gore all the insurance he needs against the overseas balloting.
Note that to the best of my knowledge some news sources have reported that there may be missing votes for Gore on Volusia, but I don't think that anyone has made the connection that these votes do exist and were tallied - incorrectly - for Harris.
Andy Martin University of Chicago 773-834-6540 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <../attachments/20001109/98d2a9c7/attachment.htm>