election demographics

Gordon Fitch gcf at panix.com
Thu Nov 9 16:28:21 PST 2000



> >> If you lived in Florida, I would say that your *individual* vote was
> >> *very* *very* substantial.


> >On the contrary, before the votes are counted, one has only
> >a certain probability of the election being decided by one's
> >vote. It is very, very low, events in Florida notwithstanding.
> >If one pretends to rationality, one must find another reason
> >for voting than its significance in deciding large elections.

Brad DeLong:
> If one is an anomic, isolated, Hobbesian individual, you are right.
>
> You may be. But I'm not.

I'd like to see a rational, materialistic demonstration of that. Short of some kind of electoral Quantum Mechanics, it seems that one's beliefs about one's vote wouldn't change its effects on the outcome of an election like the one we're discussing.



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