Talk is cheap

Daniel Davies d_squared_2002 at
Thu Oct 5 06:51:54 PDT 2000

--- Barry Rene DeCicco <bdecicco at> wrote: > > From: Brad De Long <delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU>
> (re: the 'stock market' somebody's running, where
> people can bet on the election)
> > So if I clap my hands and say I believe in the
> efficient market
> > hypothesis, will it be true?
> > Brad DeLong
> Efficient Market 'Hypothesis'? I thought that it
> was
> the received magisterium of Chicago, and that the
> only
> choice was belief or the stake :)
> Barry

Hrrrmmmm chuckle chuckle lads, but I'm not sure that the stock market would be more efficient if we replaced it with a poll of 1000 randomly selected people on the internet :)

I'm no True Believer in markets of any sort; but you don't have to be in order to accept the general proposition that people with something at stake tend to give better answers than people without a quid in the pot. Like with any sporting contest, you listen to the commentary for colour, but if you want to know what's going on, look at the odds. Shame is, Iowa doesn't let you bet on Nader, and nor does Sporting Index last time I looked. Anyone on LBO ready to bid me at a ten U$ a %? I'm only interested in long Ralph for my own PA, but might be tempted to make a two-way book if the interest is large ....


more on markets as a decision mechanism at , for those who care .....


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