Nader Wins the Debate

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Oct 5 11:17:30 PDT 2000


Marco Anglesio wrote:


>That's true, but you would expect the same sample bias in each tracking
>poll, unless they modified the criteria for likely voters over the course
>of the tracking poll. I suspect that it's merely sample error, accounted
>for in the confidence interval. One should expect the poll numbers to rise
>and fall even if support within the sampled population is stable.

Each pollster uses different techniques to project likely voters, which may account for the diff between Zogby & Gallup. The time trends within each poll are probably the joint product of noise and real volatility.

Doug



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