On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Nathan Newman wrote:
> According to the Zogby-Reuters poll, the candidate apparently receiving the
> biggest boost from the debate was Nader, who registered 7% in the most
I wouldn't give too much credence to an individual poll. Zogby-Reuters Oct 2-4 has Nader at 7%, while Gallup Oct 1-3 has Nader at 2%. A candidate scoring low is apt to appear to fluctuate more strongly, but that's merely because they're scoring low in the first place and therefore any gain or loss in a poll is a massive gain or loss.
Unless you see Nader consistently breaking 10% if not 20%, I don't think that he can play a major role or even a spoiling role nationally. At ~5% he's a regional spoiler, and might tip a state one way or the other.
This might also be LBO-talk heresy, but at ~5% I don't think that he has a strong case for participation in the presidential debates. Merely gaining a nomination on most (?) state ballots should not be the sole criterion. Personally, I think that he might enliven the debate, but shouldn't be a criterion, much less the sole one. IMHO, participants should have a legitimate chance of being the next president, and that means building voter support well before the debate schedule is announced.
Marco