OPINION | OutRight What If Gore Wins?
by Dale Carpenter
On November 8, the country will wake up to a new President-elect and a new Congress. If Gore wins, as national gay groups urge, he will either be accompanied by a Democratic Congress (Scenario #1) or a Congress still at least partly controlled by Republicans (Scenario #2). What do these Gore-as-President scenarios offer gays?
Scenario #1: Under this potential outcome, Al Gore is elected President and Democrats take control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Gay advocates will dance in the streets. There will be high hopes that Gore and the Democrats will keep their many promises to gays.
The two items on which a Democrat-controlled government is most likely to deliver are, in order of likelihood, federal hate crimes legislation and federal employment discrimination protection (ENDA). Gore mentioned both of these in his speech accepting the Democratic nomination. The Democratic platform was similarly explicit.
Yet these items are also the most controversial among gays. And they are probably the least consequential in that their effect will be largely symbolic. There is no evidence that hate crimes legislation actually deters hate crimes. It is likely unconstitutional. And anti-discrimination laws protecting gays, while defensible, are rarely used. The hostility still confronting gay America is simply deeper than these hortatory laws can reach.
Under Scenario #1, watch for action on two other issues that would have much greater substantive impact on the lives of gay Americans. With Democrats in charge of the government, there should be no excuse for inaction (or half-hearted action) on them.
First, will Gore keep his promise to get Congress to lift the ban on gays in the military?
Second, will the Democrats fulfill their platform pledge to offer gay couples benefits through a domestic partners law covering federal employees? Last week on Larry King Live Gore averred that a gay couple is "a family." Does he mean it?
Despite what Gore's gay supporters say, don't get your hopes up. We've been down the road whereon a Democratic presidential candidate promises lots and delivers little. With Democrats in control of the presidency and both houses of Congress from 1993 to 1995 we got ... Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Gore didn't mention either the military ban or federal domestic partners legislation in his acceptance speech. The Democratic platform was, at best, vague on both.
My hunch is, once Gore passes hate crimes and employment protection, national gay groups will effectively let him off the hook on the military ban and domestic partners benefits. They will blame the GOP, or the Joint Chiefs, or the alignment of Saturn and Pluto, but not the Democrats. If Scenario #1 transpires, look out for a Clinton redux.
The upshot: Under this most optimistic configuration, hate crimes legislation and ENDA will pass but there will be no repeal of the anti-gay military ban and no meaningful federal domestic partners law.
Scenario #2: Under this potential outcome, Al Gore is elected President yet Republicans retain control of the House or the Senate or both. This is essentially the balance of power in the government since 1994 -- a Democratic president and the GOP running Congress.
Scenario #2 is the most likely outcome of the election. Gore has to be considered a slight favorite because of the good economy. If he wins, it seems probable Democrats will take the House. The Senate seems less likely to fall to the Democrats.
Under Scenario #2, a federal hate crimes law is still a good bet to pass. Since it is the only gay-related item Gore routinely mentions in his campaign, he is more likely to fight for it than anything else on the wish list of national gay organizations. Alone among items on their agendas, hate crimes legislation has significant bi-partisan support. Combine that with the fact that Gore will enjoy immense popularity and deference as a new President and I think GOP leaders will have to cave on the issue of hate crimes.
ENDA is less likely to pass under this scenario. Gore almost never mentions it, which suggests it's not much of a priority for him. He has never explained the need for it in his speeches to mainstream audiences, most of whom have no idea what the acronym "ENDA" stands for. Democrats didn't even hold a hearing on a similar bill when they controlled the White House and Congress as recently as six years ago.
Gore will blame GOP opposition in Congress for the failure of ENDA, even though he will devote no political resources or time in the bully pulpit to it.
Under this scenario, you can forget about repealing the ban on gays in the military or passing domestic partners legislation. Democrats will introduce pro forma bills to achieve these goals but they will go nowhere. Gore will do nothing to advance them, huffing that Congress is the culprit.
Gay political groups, drunk on the passage of "historic" hate crimes legislation, will give Gore and the Democrats a do-nothing pass for the rest of his term. We will be told, once again, that it's necessary to elect more Democrats if we want anything done.
The upshot: under the most likely configuration, we will get a hate crimes law, but no ENDA, no repeal of the military ban, and no domestic partners legislation.
Under either Scenario #1 or #2, we're in for four more years of Democratic excuse-making.
Dale Carpenter, a law professor, is the winner of three Vice Versa awards for excellence in gay writing. He can be reached at OutRight at aol.com