>So what the f*** is their definition of a likely voter? I know, I
>know, I know it's "proprietary."
The details are, but not the principles. I asked the AAPOR folks, who responded:
>Preelection survey methodology: details from eight polling organizations, 1988
>and 1992. D. Stephen Voss; Andrew Gelman; Gary King.
>Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 1995 v59 n1 p98(35)
>I also point you to Rob Daves' recent chapter, "Who Will Vote? Ascertaining
>Likelihood to Vote and Modeling a Probable Electorate in Preelection Polls",
>in ELECTION POLLS, THE NEWS MEDIA, AND DEMOCRACY (Eds. Lavrakas & Traugott),
>Chatham House Pub., NY, 2000.