I think the gravity one gives to polls is difficult to gauge unless you take into account the balance of class forces in which opinions are formed. An as importantly, the extent to which popular self-organisation is involved in its own process of opinion formation. Otherwise, you can often find that you are measuring the reflection of elite opinion in the fleeting thoughts of a disinterested public.
Characteristic of recent times are deceptively sharp opinion swings that turn out to be quite shallow. So, for example, the Labour leader Tony Blair in the UK recently swung from being the highest rated leader ever, to being behind in the polls (following the fuel crisis) to being ten points ahead today (or at least the last time I looked).
Is this indicative of a turbulent political process? No, it is indicative of a largely moribund one. Blair's high poll rating was deceptive. His party's standing, like the collapse of the Tory opposition, was a phenomena that lived in the intellectual life of the elite. Ordinary people were largely disconnected. Not that they rejected the press assessment. They simply shared it without any degree of conviction.
By contrast, the shift in opinion in the 1970s that brought the Tories to power, was the result of a prolonged campaign by the right and sudden demoralisation on the part of the left. The swing in opinion that resulted was more deep-seated.
-- James Heartfield
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