Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com
delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU
Tue Oct 24 12:35:24 PDT 2000
> >It's been a long time since I've advocated sending *anybody* to the
>>re-education camp. But a close of the Bush - Gore margin from 11% to
>>2% in two days is a three-standard-deviation move. This isn't the
>>first or the second three-standard-deviation move in the Gallup poll
>That may say something about polling in elections.
>It also might be that ~10% of the people are changing their minds
>on a week-by-week basis. After all, that's what the final barrage
>of advertisements is all about.
Such large swings are not showing up in any of the other tracking
polls: only in Gallup...
J. Bradford DeLong
Professor of Economics, U.C. Berkeley
601 Evans Hall, #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
(510) 643-4027 voice
(510) 642-6615 fax
delong at econ.berkeley.edu
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