Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com

Brad DeLong delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU
Tue Oct 24 12:35:24 PDT 2000

> >It's been a long time since I've advocated sending *anybody* to the
>>re-education camp. But a close of the Bush - Gore margin from 11% to
>>2% in two days is a three-standard-deviation move. This isn't the
>>first or the second three-standard-deviation move in the Gallup poll
>>Brad DeLong
>That may say something about polling in elections.
>It also might be that ~10% of the people are changing their minds
>on a week-by-week basis. After all, that's what the final barrage
>of advertisements is all about.

Such large swings are not showing up in any of the other tracking polls: only in Gallup...

-- J. Bradford DeLong Professor of Economics, U.C. Berkeley 601 Evans Hall, #3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 voice (510) 642-6615 fax http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/ delong at econ.berkeley.edu

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