Market Place: According to the Dow, Gore's Worries Are Over By FLOYD NORRIS
THE verdict of the Dow Jones industrial average is in, and it says Al Gore is headed for the White House.
The Dow closed yesterday at 10,971.14, up 4.3 percent since the end of July after a roller coaster period that saw it soar during August and then sink in September and early October, only to put on a strong rally in the final two weeks of the month.
The Dow's verdict flies in the face of the conventional wisdom of the polls, which show George W. Bush with a narrow lead. But the Dow's record of presidential election forecasting is such an excellent one that it commands respect. It has correctly forecast 22 of the 25 presidential elections since the Dow industrials made their debut in 1897.
The historical pattern is that when the Dow rises from the end of July through the end of October — the period when the attention of voters is becoming most fixed on the presidential election, the incumbent party keeps the White House. But when the Dow goes down, the insiders are thrown out.