Bundesbank mocks US IT book-cooking

Brad De Long delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU
Wed Sep 6 15:18:05 PDT 2000



>Michael Pollak wrote:
>
>>[Here's the guess a letter writer to the FT came up with: a US real GDP
>>growth rate 1/3 less than that posted for the last two years]
>
>Dunno how Riechebacher - who, I might add, has been predicting
>disaster for the better part of 20 years, maybe longer - came up
>with this. Real GDP growth with computers was 5.7% from 99Q2 to
>00Q2; it's 5.2% without. With the chained method, components of GDP
>don't add up to total GDP, so you can't just subtract out computer
>sales.
>
>Doug

A point that's going to become more and more important. Should we (_JEP_, that is) publish a primer on not making a fool of yourself with chain-weighted data?

Brad DeLong



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