Nader Doing Well in Florida

Michael Hoover hoov at freenet.tlh.fl.us
Fri Sep 22 12:14:25 PDT 2000



> So far Nader is not tipping almost any state one way or the other in polls
> (although he looks likely to have a chance in Oregon), except for one large,
> relatively surprising state. This is from the Portrait of America poll,
> beloved of some conservatives, which shows Nader with an 11 point support in
> FLORIDA?! Since the state is now dead even between Gore and Bush, if Nader
> sustains even part of that support, he could toss the state to Bush.
> Any thoughts on why Nader is doing so well in Florida?
> >From 9-20 Portrait of America
> 43% Al Gore
> 43% George W. Bush
> 11% Ralph Nader
> 1% Harry Browne
> 0% Howard Phillips
> 1% John Hagelin
> 1% Pat Buchanan
> 0% Not Sure

Because POA initially posted numbers incorrectly? I just accessed site and my computer screen read:

43% Al Gore

43% George W. Bush

1% Ralph Nader

1% Harry Browne

0% Howard Phillips

1% John Hagelin

11% Not Sure

I was skeptical, to say least, when I read numbers in Nathan's post because they were so different from 2 Florida polls that I (as a poli sci guy) track regularly: most recent Mason-Dixon poll has RN at 3% (3.5% plus/minus margin of error), most recent Florida Voter poll has Nader at 6% (4% plus/minus margin of error). Despite attempting to resist, my social science mind clicked on: sampling problem?, 200 person sample/7% margin of error? Actually, my first thoughts were about respondent "trickstering," something that pollsters/survey researchers don't like to acknowledge.

Of course, 6% Nader vote (which I think unlikely) in Florida would probably toss state to Bush. Even 3% Nader vote, depending on what the approximately 10% undecided do, if current dead-heat (on that, Mason-Dixon and Florida Voter agree with POA) in polls were to hold.

In general, I'm not anti-polling even though I'm cognizant of their limitations, problems, misuse, etc. Record of polls in predicting elections is quite good even though I'm not sure what that really tells us. With respect to "issue" polls, folks tend to rely on results only if they like findings. So much for objective measure against which to judge accuracy. But, as cost of conducting polls has fallen with new technologies, plethora of polling organizations has emerged. Commodification/marketization of "opinion" has led to growing willingness to compromise survey methodologies.

Re. POA, gotta love folks who have no shame in placing presidential election poll results alongside those predicting which teams will make it to Super Bowl and who will win Heisman Trophy. Michael Hoover



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