The tendency of earnings estimates to fall

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Wed Apr 4 11:58:17 PDT 2001


Seth Ackerman wrote:


>But the corporate profit rate stabilized at a very high rate; it hasn't
>plummeted. That does seem chonologically inconsistent with the New Economy
>story, which holds that '96 was the early days of a tech-driven productivity
>revolution. But it's not inconsistent with the 1996-2000 bull market in
>stocks: As long as you have a sustained high rate of return on invested
>capital, you should see a high rate of return on stocks, no? You don't need
>a constantly rising rate of profit.

You can explain the higher rate of profit by wage cutting, speedup, and other very conventional things (also, lower interest rates, which have eased the debt service burden). You don't need a technological revolution. Yes, the profit rate is stable at a rather high level, but it peaked just a year or two after reported productivity started accelerating. Profitability started rising the early 1980s, well before the New Paradigmers found themselves.

Doug



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