RES: The coming Glorious Revolution

Alexandre Fenelon afenelon at zaz.com.br
Wed Apr 4 16:56:45 PDT 2001


Alexandre asks:


>-There is another argument: the logical conclusion of the "failure
>-of international revolution" reasoning is that Russia was not
>-prepared for the revolution. So the Mensheviks would be right as
>-far you consider marxist analysis, right?

No, the Bolsheviks were correct to push forward; it's the strength of capital or the weakness of the working class in rich nations or both that are to blame (if it makes sense to assign "blame" in history at all).

Yoshie

-Let´s make this question in another way, since I don´t disagree -completely from you. It would be reasonable to think that Russia -in 1917 was not prepared for a socialist revolution, due to its -backward economy and to the fact the working class was a minority. -There was three reasons to make the October revolution: 1-The working class, from whom came most of Bolshevik support, wanted the revolution. This is very evident when you look at the results of 1917 elections, where Bolsheviks got 25% (majority in the cities, more than 40% in Leningrad and Moscow) while the Mensheviks got only 3% (almost all in Georgia). So, it would be suicidal to go against the revolution. 2-The perspectives of a international revolution (and here comes 1st doubt, were those perspectives concrete, or better, it was possible to foresee the failure of international revolution in 1917-18?) 3-The imminent collapse of Russia as a nation (considered a major reason by E. Hobsbawn) On the other hand, the Bolsheviks seems to expect the victory of European revolution or their own defeat. They seemed not to be prepared for the victory of socialism in only one country (a poor one). If they considered this third possibility, as we can consider retrospectively, did they should have attempted the revolution? Why I think this question is relevant? Because developed states are too strongs and their working classes still benefit from imperialism. That´s why I think that the chances of social revolution are much higher in develping countries like mine, and so the cycle starts again and the revolution is doomed to failure again? On the other side, if it was possible to limit that damage made by some wrong Bolshevik policies in 1917-22, maybe an eventual revolution in one or more Third world countries could survive withouth suffering the bureaucratic degeneration that led the Russian revolution to failure for time enough to allow international revolution.

Alexandre



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