STRATFOR China's Strategy: Shocking the System 05 April 2001
By George Friedman
The Chinese are intentionally creating a crisis by refusing to release the downed EP-3E surveillance aircraft or its crew for several reasons. Chinese intelligence needs time to examine the plane and its equipment. Beijing wants to show its people the power of their government.
Internally, the Chinese are divided over the proper course of action and feel no pressure to act quickly.
Beijing is using this incident to shift the global balance of power, hoping such a shock to the international system might weaken perceptions of American military omnipotence.
The international system's basic reality has been a disequilibrium among global powers the result of which will be other great powers acting to limit American power. China's desire for multipolarity is this process at work.
The American bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade showed that the United States regarded China as a tertiary power. The United States saw no way for China to respond and anticipated a lack of global response to the action. It was right on both counts.
This described a world out of control to the Chinese. Since the United States appeared to take whatever unilateral action it wanted without consequence, China wanted to demonstrate that there were potentially dangerous ramifications to American actions.
China needed to create some sense of military parity with the United States. In a world where American military omnipotence was a psychological cornerstone, transforming the perception of American power was critical.
China attempted to foment a strategic crisis before the Taiwan elections with disastrous results. Rather than showcasing Chinese power, it demonstrated Chinese impotence. The candidate Beijing most opposed won the election and China was unable to pose a challenge to the United States. The EP-3E's capture proved a perfect opportunity to demonstrate Chinese power.
First, the very existence of U.S. reconnaissance flights along the Chinese frontier shows the United States regards China as an adversary worth watching. Second, that the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) can intercept an American aircraft drives home China's ability to assert its power along its littoral. China also benefits from inspecting the aircraft's innards, illustrating its technical capability.
Beijing remembers the Iranian hostage crisis' psychological effect; the perception of American helplessness, however unfair, created a crisis of confidence about and within the United States. By creating a similar situation, even for a short time, China emphasizes that the United States is not militarily omnipotent.
In prolonging the crisis, the Chinese focus global attention on a military relationship in which China has the upper hand. This has substantial value domestically. Its greatest advantage, however, is in driving home to potential coalition partners that it is possible to resist U.S. military power.
Only two U.S. military responses are possible: a commando operation to rescue the crew and a military strike against some Chinese asset. The former would be time consuming to mount and dangerous. The latter would turn a single incident into near-war. The United States will do neither. China is immune to American military action, precisely the atmosphere Beijing wants to project.
Since China has little to lose and much to gain in a protracted crisis, how long is enough? When the world sees that China made its decision to release the Americans solely because it wished to, without considering Washington's threats or feelings. Moreover, we expect China will never release the aircraft - or release it in small, tagged pieces - as a permanent symbol of Chinese power.
China wants to show the world that it is immune to American pressure. Its need to do so is geopolitical and the potential payoff substantial.
George Friedman, Ph.D., is a best-selling author and STRATFOR's founder and chairman.