the bull is back

Bob Morris bobmorris at mediaone.net
Sun Apr 22 10:34:20 PDT 2001



> generate electricity, El Paso should do well. Should I not own them as
they
> may have priced-gouged in California, where I live? If it were shown they
> price-gouged on a massive scale, I'd probably sell the stock.


>You merely have to ask, Bob. Is this article enough to convince you?

Sort of. It's a good article, and I too saw it in the L.A Times. Who were the "energy experts" who testified?. They weren't identified at all. There are so many players in this, with so many different agendas that I'm a bit suspicious of everyone, except maybe David Freeman (ex-head of LA DWP, and now California energy czar), who, IMO, is a certified Good Guy.

If natural gas bandwidth was tight going into California from the South, why would Dynergy and El Paso hold back when they could sell the bandwidth for high prices? Or ship their own natural gas on it, for a nice profit? In a different area, why would, say Enron, deliberately shut down electricity generators in California since that only benefits their competition?, say Reliant Energy? Did they game the system? Probably. Are they engaged in outright collusion? I'm not sure why they would have to be, business is already great, plus, they are competing with each other.

Also, if California is going to build more power plants, we are going to NEED these Texas energy baddies to help us build them. Best not to get them too pissed off at us.

Then there's our doofus governor, Gray Davis, who was warned of spiking prices last June and ignored it. And who has done little since the crisis hit except try to cover his ass and try to stay in the running for a Presidential run in 2004 while blaming everyone else but himself. State Senator Debra Bowen, head of the Energy Committee, warned of this impeding crisis 18 months ago, and was ignored.

Plus, some of this is due to Mother Nature, a hot summer last year, and now, a major shortage of hydro power in Washington State and California. We are already using water earmarked for summer to generate power now. Not good. Plus, the long range forecast this summer is "hotter than normal in California, and staying hotter into the fall for southern California".

The highest estimate I've seen for price gouging is $500 million, a lot to be sure, and also an estimate done by obvious partisans. However PG&E and Edison are in debt over 13 billion. That's a whole lot more that no one says is gouging.

Price caps might help the price, but if won't help supply. Everyone I've read on this, regardless of viewpoint, says California faces major power shortages this summer. Too many people, too little conservation, too few power plants in state, and too many server farms. But if we force server farms out, then there's goes part of the economy too.

BTW, all the lights in my home are energy saving CFLs and I drive a gas/electric hybrid, the Toyota Prius. 42 mgp in the City and it does not need to be plugged in to recharge. Great car. If everyone in the state went to CFLs, the energy crisis probably wouldn't be a crisis..

Watching this energy crisis unfold is like watching a car wreck in slow motion...



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