Voters put tax cuts last on wish list
By Michelle Grattan, Chief Political Correspondent
Seven out of 10 Australians would prefer to see the Budget surplus spent on health or education rather than on income tax cuts or GST rollback, a Herald-ACNielsen poll has found.
The poll also shows a strong - but so far not winning - swing back to the Coalition, driven by a surge in support among older voters wooed in the May Budget.
There are mixed messages for the Opposition Leader, Mr Beazley, who promises to spend the surplus on health, education and rollback, while the poll suggests that Mr Howard's priority to use the surplus for income tax relief is so far getting weak support.
Asked whether the surplus should go to health, education, income tax cuts or rollback, 43 per cent said health should be first and 27 per cent named education.
Only 16 per cent said income tax relief should be top priority - although support is higher among young families. GST rollback was fourth at 11 per cent in the weekend poll of 2,065.
The Government's vote is up 4 points since May to 38 per cent, the highest since November. Labor is down three points to 40 per cent, its lowest since December 1999 and equal to its primary vote at the 1998 election.
Labor leads on a two-party vote with 53 per cent (down four) to 47 per cent (up four).
These figures are a 2 per cent swing since the 1998 election, which would give Mr Beazley victory with a reasonable majority.
Both leaders are on 46 per cent approval ratings after Mr Howard's increased two points and Mr Beazley's fell by two. Mr Howard is marginally ahead as preferred prime minister - 44 per cent (up two) to Mr Beazley's 42 per cent (down two).
The pollster, Mr John Stirton, says the eight-point swing back to the Coalition by older voters has put the Government "in touch with Labor for the first time this year".
The Coalition is polling 50 per cent among those 55 and over; Labor's vote has dropped 10 points to 30 per cent in this group.
Mr Stirton said older voters usually provided a bedrock of support for the Coalition. But they had been deserting the Government - in the first six months of this year the Coalition has averaged 41 per cent in this group to Labor's 38 per cent.
Mr Stirton said that in the six months to the 1998 election, the Coalition averaged 46 per cent of the older vote; in the same period before the 1996 election it averaged 58 per cent.
The Coalition made only very modest gains among those aged 40-54 and 25-29 while the ALP maintained a strong lead among young voters. Older voters contributed three of the four points the Coalition gained since May.
In the same period the Government improved its position in all mainland States except Victoria. It rose six points in NSW, five in Queensland, and three in South Australia. Its vote was steady in Western Australia but Labor fell by nine points.
Women and older voters were more inclined to give top billing to health care; there was strongest support for education spending among the young.
People aged 25-39 - the young family group - are the most in favour of income tax cuts. The youngest voters are the strongest supporters of rollback.
Support for the GST has risen five points since May but it is still only 46 per cent, with 50 per cent (down five points ) against it.
The Democrat vote was down by one point to 7 per cent, the Greens steady on 4 per cent and One Nation also unchanged on 5 per cent. The Independent vote in Queensland is very high, 10 per cent, which augurs well for candidates like the former National Mr Bob Katter.