It is the same with the question of "absolute immiseration" (of the proletariat) or "imminent collapse" of capitalism. Both can be demonstrated possible in theory, but real probabilities of both are very, very small in practice. I would suggest the same is true with a capitalism without the US, and many other "extraneous factors".
-Brad Mayer
At 10:02 AM 8/18/01 -0400, you wrote:
>At 9:30 AM -0700 8/17/01, Brad DeLong wrote in a thread titled "A
>long way to go still.......":
> >The hope was that opening up international capital markets would
> >make it easier for poor countries to finance industrialization. But
> >as we sit here and look at the United States's $250 billion plus
> >annual trade deficit, it seems that something has gone very wrong.
> >In the aggregate, capital is not flowing from rich countries to poor
> >countries, but from everywhere else to the United States.
> >
> >There are a number of theories suggesting that the long-run dominant
> >tendency is for open capital flows to cascade from rich to poor, and
> >that this tendency has been masked over the past two decades by
> >temporary factors. But with each year that passes, such theories
> >become less and less credible...
>
>For once, Brad Mayer & Brad DeLong sound as if they are on the same
>wavelength. ;-)
>
>Yoshie