The Dow Jones was just under 4000 7 and also 8 years ago. I've read that the Dow since 1880 has gone up about 6% a year. If that suggests something about what a "reasonable" price for equities would be, that would mean the Dow "should" be at about 6375 now. Of course, that assumes that the pre-bubble prices of 1994 reflected some kind or reality, and not the irrational pessimism of recession-troubled early 90s America.