August 29, 2001
Law
Study Says Relaxing Laws, More Visas Could Ease U.S. Immigration Problem
By EDUARDO PORTER Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
LOS ANGELES -- The broad legalization of undocumented immigrants and a new visa program for low-end workers would reduce the number of immigrants coming to the U.S. in search of a job while at the same time raising their wages, says a new report to be released Wednesday.
The study, one of the first to look at the economic impact of relaxing immigration laws, comes against the backdrop of negotiations between the U.S. and Mexican governments to define a new legal status for the millions of Mexicans now working illegally in the U.S. Its findings underline the possibility that labor unions, which are pushing for a broad amnesty for illegal immigrants, and business groups, which back a temporary visa program to curb worker shortages, could find common ground on the issue.
"The possibility exists for the emergence of a new consensus," says economist Raul Hinojosa of UCLA's North American Integration and Development Center, the author of the report.
Mr. Hinojosa's conclusions draw on previous studies finding that the main driver of illegal immigration is demand for inexpensive labor by U.S. businesses. Tighter border controls might make it more difficult for immigrants to arrive, but won't put a dent in the overall numbers.
Therefore, argues Mr. Hinojosa, the only way to curtail immigration is by reducing demand. A comprehensive legalization plan plus an ample new visa program would achieve this, he adds, because legalizing immigrant labor would make it more expensive. Indeed, the academic cites a study by the Department of Labor that found that in the years after the previous amnesty for undocumented workers in 1986, wages for the legalized immigrants rose by about 15%.
Taking into account wage elasticity -- how much a given rise in wages cuts the number of jobs -- Mr. Hinojosa estimates that if wages of newly legalized workers rose by 15%, the number of those workers hired would fall by about a quarter. In fact, in the three years after the amnesty of 1986, the number of illegal immigrants detected by the INS plummeted, and only started ticking up again in the 1990s, after the legalization process ended.
Aside from the effect on migration, the UCLA study also concludes that legalized immigrant workers significantly increase their investments in themselves, be it through learning English or other training, which boosts their productivity.
The study comes out days before President Bush and his Mexican counterpart, Vicente Fox, are expected to put more flesh on an initiative to ease restrictions on millions of Mexican workers in the U.S. The administration has ruled out a blanket amnesty for illegal immigrants. But few details have been disclosed on the eligibility requirements needed to earn legal residence under a possible Bush plan.
The administration faces big political hurdles. Many analysts believe that the Bush administration's backing for legalization is designed primarily to help Republicans win Latino votes in 2002 and 2004 elections. But important lawmakers in the Republican Party are opposed to any bill that, they say, would reward lawbreakers. Latino advocacy groups, such as the National Council for La Raza, have aired concerns during the past week that the president might be backpedaling on his original legalization plans due to opposition in his party.
Fearing a looming labor shortage, employer groups want a temporary visa program to help close the gap with immigrants. But labor unions oppose temporary visa programs that could create a second-class worker, less protected by labor law.
Instead, they want amnesty because it would remove the main obstacle to organizing the illegal immigrants at the bottom end of the labor market, unions' main recruiting ground.
The economics outlined by the UCLA report could provide common ground for labor unions and employer groups to back a plan including both legalization -- which some call "earned adjustment" of legal status -- and new visas. "Both sides see the grounds for an agreement, but we don't have enough specifics to know how that is going to work out," says Peggy Taylor, head of congressional relations at the AFL-CIO.
Both sides know that for reform to become law it must include some form of both provisions to command the support of business, labor and Hispanic groups.
"Nothing is going to pass on Capitol Hill unless it has the earned adjustment attached to it," says Randy Johnson, vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "That's why there's the possibility of this strange alliance."