|| -----Original Message-----
|| From: Chris Doss
|| But if Russia, Kazakhstan and world consumers can join Chevron in
|| rejoicing at the pipeline's completion, Turkey has exhibited
|| mostly concern.
|| The extra tankers carrying Tengiz oil, which eventually
|| will number
|| three a week, will further clog the Bosphorus Strait that
|| bisects Istanbul
|| and increase the chances that the city of 12 million people
|| some day will
|| have to cope with a major oil spill or even a fire.
|| But Turkey is committed to upholding the 1936 Montreux
|| Agreement and,
|| barring a catastrophe, Caspian oil will be able to navigate the
|| strait to
|| reach European markets for the foreseeable future, analysts say.
Over my dead body. The Bosphorus is where I used to swim, fish, go boating in the moonlight, and now it's a friggin freeway. Neither the people living on its shores nor the authorities will stand for a major increase in tonnage. Funny thing, the cops are incredibly benevolent when we demonstrate against those tankers. Putin is dreaming, it's just not going to happen. I'll tell you exactly what _will_ happen: Turkey will put a ceiling on the tonnage it lets through per day and those tankers will just cool their heels in the Black Sea, running up costs and putting the pipeline out of business. Did you follow what happened to that Ukranian carrier that China bought? They went through hell before they could get it through the straits, Montreux or no Montreux.
Putin may be counting on the brownie points he's getting by selling oil at a loss as a gift to the West's economic recovery. But Turkey is an incredibly tough customer when it comes to its national interests despite its puny economy, its dependence on IMF support, and its iffy EU candidacy. Just yesterday the EU had to agree to almost all the Turkish conditions before Turkey lifted its NATO veto against the European rapid reaction force.
While we've broached the hydrocarbons issue, what are Russian plans for Khazak gas?
Hakki