Daschle's Mitchell process
Dec 6th 2001
>From The Economist print edition
How to outmanoeuvre two Bushes in ten years
GEORGE BUSH may be pulverising the Taliban in Afghanistan, but back home in Washington, DC, he is facing a much tougher enemy. Having taken to their caves after September 11th, terrified that any criticism of the commander-in-chief might look unpatriotic, the Democrats are on the offensive once again. On the electoral front, they have marched deep into Republican territory by capturing the governorship of Virginia, they have hung on to the mayor's job in Houston, and they have put a sleeper in charge of New York city. But they have done something even more important than all this. They have come up with a battle plan for taking on a wildly popular war president: the Mitchell plan.
These days George Mitchell is synonymous with the Northern Ireland "peace process" and the Middle East "plan". But in Washington he is still remembered as the most successful leader the Democrats have had in the Senate since Lyndon Johnson-and as the man who destroyed the first Bush presidency.
Mr Mitchell's genius was to make a sharp distinction between foreign and domestic affairs. He gave George Bush senior full credit for the war to rescue Kuwait. But he made sure he got no credit whatsoever on the domestic front, bottling up his domestic agenda, forcing through Democratic policies and making sure Mr Bush got the blame for the recession. So long as the war continued, the president's popularity was sky-high; but, as soon as the war ended, the president's glory ended with it.
Tom Daschle, the current Senate majority leader, was Mr Mitchell's consigliere during the deconstruction of the first Bush presidency, and remains in close contact with his old boss. He has, grumble the Republicans, the same Mitchell gift for hiding partisan ruthlessness behind mild manners and apparent openness. And he is now busy reviving the Mitchell strategy.
Listen to Mr Daschle on the president's war leadership. He is doing "a brilliant job", "spectacular", "as good as it gets". But then look at what Mr Daschle does on the domestic front. Mr Bush has pleaded with Congress to pass just three measures before it adjourns for the year: the Trade Promotion Authority, an energy bill, and an economic stimulus package. Mr Daschle has not been helpful on any of them; instead, he has focused his energy on a farm bill, which the White House opposes, and a railroad workers' retirement bill, which nobody wants except the unions. And he has cleverly turned his own party's voracious appetite for spending into a deal-buster for Mr Bush. Senator Bob Byrd's demand for an extra $15 billion of spending has become a sticking point on the stimulus package. A fortnight ago Ted Kennedy and Mr Bush shook hands on the education bill in the Oval Office. Now Mr Kennedy has suddenly discovered that he needs a little bit more money before the bill is ready.
Mr Daschle is also preparing the ground on the economy. This is the "Bush recession", he argues (despite the fact that it started a mere six weeks after Mr Bush came to office), the result of "selfish and irresponsible" tax cuts that lined the pockets of the rich while driving the country's finances back into deficit.
Can the Mitchell strategy work again? One problem for Mr Daschle is that the son is a much tougher opponent than the father-not least because he has made such a point of studying his father's failures. Bush senior had almost no interest in domestic policy. Junior ran for office on a domestic agenda. Senior alienated his natural supporters with a tax rise. Junior's first priority was to produce a tax cut. Senior often seemed too gentlemanly to be in politics. Anyone who regards the son as gentlemanly should ask Jim Gilmore, who has just been turfed out of his job as head of the Republican National Committee.
However, even if the son is better prepared, this does not mean he is invulnerable. Yes, Mr Bush took time off from being commander-in-chief this week to campaign in Florida for his stimulus package; but that was the first time Mr Bush has visibly focused on domestic policy (apart from security) since September 11th. The problem with being a war president is that you have no choice but to spend most of your time above the local fray. Mr Bush's top priority is inevitably to keep the nation united behind the war. Some Republicans have criticised Mr Bush for refusing to campaign for their candidates or appear at fundraising meetings. But if he tries to combine being a war president with being a partisan fighter he may end up failing in both roles. When Franklin Roosevelt campaigned for Democrats in 1942, they lost 45 House and nine Senate seats.
Mr Bush is not the only senior Republican to be distracted from the home front. In previous wars, the vice-president has usually taken over domestic issues; but Dick Cheney, a former defence secretary, is utterly absorbed by the war. Josh Bolten, the head of the president's domestic policy staff, is also focusing on the aftermath of September 11th.
Domestic politics may be drifting in Mr Daschle's direction anyway. For 40 years America has seen a relentless decline of faith in government-a decline that accelerated the rise of Reaganism and held Clintonism in check. Since September 11th, a belief in the state's power to do good has returned, and the Democrats are hellbent on stretching it to cover more than just national security. A leaked Democratic memo recently argued that Mr Bush is much more vulnerable than he appears, particularly if the Democrats line up behind a programme of government activism designed to build a "national community".
State-sponsored communitarianism should be a hard sell. But the Republicans are doing little to push the domestic agenda their way. Behind the scenes, Democrats are getting more confident by the day. Back in 1992 the Democratic presidential field was so feeble that an unknown governor from an obscure southern state seized the nomination. This time, several prominent Democrats hope to take on Mr Bush-not least that nice Mr Daschle. The consigliere may yet become the capo di tutti capi.