>On Sat, 22 Dec 2001, Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>> Argentina's room for maneuver is very limited. It's a small country
>> with big debts. It has less wiggle room than a larger country, like
>> Brazil. If it were to default as a conscious, explictly rebellious
>> strategy, it would be screwed - frozen out of global markets, unable
>> to finance the import of basic goods. Without a change in the
>> creditor countries, or without the formation of a serious and large
>> debtors' cartel, there's not much the Argentinas of the world can do.
>
>Wouldn't indexed pesification amount to a controlled default? Reducing
>the value of the outstanding dollar debts by the amount that the peso
>sinks once it's allowed to "float?" Do you think the powers that be won't
>let it happen? And that outside investors won't be interested in
>Argentine assets once they become a lot cheaper?
Yup, they will; the vultures are already feeding. But I'm talking about Argentina's longer-term prospects; once they get through this crisis, there'll probably be another, and another - they're tightly locked in the box of maldevelopment.
Doug