>I'd say the style in Venezuela, which includes taking the state
>power of a nation-state, is very much as promising as all you list
>above, perhaps even more so.
Financial Times - February 5, 2001
AMERICAS: Struggling Chavezmay look to loyalist for lifeline: The Venezuelan president's choice of defence minister could be an attempt to keep control of the armed forces, writes Andy Webb-Vidal:
Mingle among the ragged crowd that waits daily outside Venezuela's presidential palace to petition Hugo Chavez for a job and the sense of desperation is palpable.
A red beret, the badge of allegiance that once belonged to a militant follower, lies abandoned by the roadside. Clenched fists grip the shut gates.
For the former paratrooper, February 4 was meant to be a double anniversary celebration - nine years since his attempted coup threw him into Venezuela's political spotlight and two years since he took office after a landslide election victory.
Yet besides the obligatory goose-stepping soldiers and mis-marching schoolchildren, few members of the public turned out to applaud the street parades this weekend.
Decade-high oil prices and a huge increase in public spending have had little impact in fulfilling the expectations raised by the populist Mr Chavez among the poor that make up the majority of the world's third- biggest oil-exporting nation.
Amid the government's ineffectiveness in tackling soaring crime rates, Mr Chavez's approval rating has dropped to 42 per cent, from 66 per cent two years ago, according to a survey by polling company Datos.
"I've been coming here for weeks trying to get a job, but Chavez can't seem to be able to help," says Pablo, a mechanic from Caracas. "How long can I wait?"
Impatience on the streets may be left to simmer, but unrest in the armed forces is another matter.
Discontent among senior officers, many of whom are said to be annoyed by Mr Chavez's attempt to politicise and incorporate the military into his "Bolivarian revolution" - the president's political ambitions based on social justice - has suddenly come into sharp relief.
In an unexpected move, Mr Chavez on Friday dismissed his defence minister, General Eliecer Hurtado, and replaced him with foreign minister Jose Rangel, making him the country's first civilian to take the post.
Gen Hurtado had been lampooned during the past two weeks for his ill-advised revelation that dozens of women's panties had been sent to senior commanders, insinuating cowardice, along with pamphlets inciting officers to topple Mr Chavez.
However, top commanders, it has emerged, have held several discreet meetings in Caracas and put pressure on Mr Chavez not to dismiss Gen Hurtado before he was due to retire in July.
The appointment of Mr Rangel is seen by analysts as not just a reaction to embarrassment over the public relations gaffe committed by Gen Hurtado, but part of a risky manoeuvre by Mr Chavez to keep control over the armed forces.
"Chavez's permanent fear is the creation of an axis of power besides himself, and worst of all a force opposed to him in the armed forces," says Manuel Caballero, a political analyst. "His message here is: 'Forget being institutional, I'm going to dominate the military directly through the minister'."
In an attempt to pre-empt criticism from within the military, Mr Chavez argued that, perhaps not unreasonably, both civilians and military officials were capable of taking any public office. Analysts said the move would help silence critics who charge that the government is becoming increasingly militarised.
Human rights groups welcomed the appointment, saying it represented the "democratic subordination" of the military to civilian command.
Yet observers say Mr Rangel is a highly unusual choice for defence minister, and a sign that Mr Chavez is falling back on the few civilian politicians he trusts.
Mr Rangel, an old-guard leftist and hitherto loyal server of Mr Chavez, dedicated a large part of his previous career as a journalist to discrediting the armed forces and accusing military officials of corruption.
"The appointment of a civilian without doubt would annoy a majority of members of the armed forces, but Rangel is a rejected figure," says Fernando Ochoa, a former defence minister.
"In addition, he is sympathetic to the Colombian guerrillas, and that's causing deep concern in the military."
But potentially more worrying, says Mr Ochoa, is Mr Rangel's hostility towards the Colombian government and, although somewhat suppressed during his tenure as foreign minister, anti-US sentiment.
In response to Mr Chavez's declining popularity, Mr Rangel could reignite tensions between Venezuela and Colombia when hopes for a resumption in Colombia's peace talks rest on a knife edge and when Plan Colombia, the US-backed anti-narcotics programme, is beginning to be implemented.
A deterioration in diplomatic relations, based on what is perceived by Bogota as the Venezuelan government's favourable treatment of guerrillas, prompted President Andres Pastrana of Colombia to briefly recall his ambassador to Caracas at the end of last year.
"This is potentially dangerous because Rangel could try to offset the military's disliking of him by fanning the latent anti-Colombian sentiment within the army," says Mr Caballero.
"We can imagine what the consequences of that could be."