So much for "Chief Financial Disciplinarian" - on the other hand, we're putting Milton Friedmans' Great Depression theory to the test, in part.
On a work email discussion list, I had speculated that Gore would be another Jimmy Carter president in a Jimmy Carter-style (ie, inflationary) end-phase of the business cycle. It was part of a tongue in cheek "reverse lessor evilism" argument, where one hoped for Gores' defeat in the face of an oncoming recession so that Bush would "get the blame". Otherwise - well, we all know what followed the Peanut in Chief. Of course the response of Democratic Party morons was that the Republicans would threaten Clintons' wonderful "unprecedented prosperity". What cynicism.
So, my economic compass is currently pointing to inflation. During the US boom it was fairly tightly channeled into "asset inflation", a kind of deferred consumption if you will. Lately it has leaked over into "energy inflation", esp. vide the current, utterly manufactured and N.B. carefully post-electoral "energy crisis" in California. Should rates fall further (or other factors change), a fall in the US Dollar will have this inflationary current show up in the enormous US import bill and attached commodities, consumer credit permitting (and this is another questionable factor in re the banks).
So, let the speculation (financial and conceptual) begin!
-Brad Mayer Oakland, CA -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <../attachments/20010104/260e1ddf/attachment.htm>