>> I'm not sure what is measured by 28-30 percent investment/GDP ratio in
>> Japan in the 1990s.
>Those are the official OECD statistics, which are meant to be reasonably
>comparable to other countries. They could be wrong, of course.
Does anyone have access to OECD data on investment in Japan? I'm at least 100 miles from any library that carries the OECD "Economic Survey on Japan."
I'm curious because Brenner's NLR book, based on the 1995-6 survey of Japan says (p. 222):
"Between 1991 and 1994, investment [in Japan] as a portion of GDP fell from 20% to 14% and the average annual increase of the capital stock fell by more than one-third, compared to that for 1985-91. These reduced figures were still higher than the comparable ones of the US in the same period, but they were entirely inadequate for the formidable task of maintaining competitiveness or profitability."
James O'Connor wrote:>5. What percentage of these investments are construction/building/land
>development investments? This is a big deal in what I call the Japanese
>"public works spoils allotment system economy." That is, how much of these
>investments are meant to be counter-cyclical (or counter-stagnation or
>couner-whatever is going on in Japan).
Charts in http://www.boj.or.jp/en/down/siryo/99/gp9912.pdf show that from 92-99 (p. 18), the value of public works was basically steady, while from 91-99 (p. 27), manuf. business investment fell by almost half (the drop in non-manufact. investment was not as steep). It seems to suggest that the construction/building/land/development investments made up an increasing share of investment in Japan in the 90s, but maybe I'm reading everything wrong.
The report also shows falling wages, stagnant employment, falling domestic consumption, etc. But hey, at least corporate profits and exports look like they're rising!
> > 4. Is the investment crowded in export industries, which are in good
> > shape relative to the home market, especially vehicles (note the
> > popularity of relatively new Japanese minivans and SUVs in the US market).
>
>Japanese firms just piled in to the minivan/SUV market, and many of these
>are produced at US-based plants. There does seem to be an investment
>upturn in info tech right now, which is beginning to draw in a lot of SE
>Asian imports, good news for Taiwan and South Korea
>(http://www.jeita.or.jp/english/stat).
But better news for Japan, no? Japan is running a record trade surplus with Taiwan, and exports to Taiwan remained steady during the Asian Financial Crisis, even while Japan lowered the value of goods it soaked up from Taiwan, leaving Taiwan with a US$18.7 billion trade deficit in 1999.
Besides, why should Taiwanese workers be producing parts for gaz-guzzling Americans when they could be developing and building technology to clean up their fouled environment or whatever else they want to do with their time and resources?
And this is ominous: http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3I1MTCTHC&live=true Anyone remember the last time the Yen dropped?
Here's Brenner on the subject (p. 226): "In the past a falling Yen had generally been sufficient to generate a recovery, because it had made possible access to the huge, absorptive US market. But, since the time of the previous export-led expansion driven by a devalued yen, which had taken place between 1979 and 1985, Japan had been obliged to massively reorient its commerce, away from the US and towards East Asia. The switch to Asia, however, came with a catch. Whereas a rising dollar with respect to the ye had automatically improved Japanese export prospects in the US market, rising East Asian currencies with regard to the yen could very well end up undercutting Japanese export prospects in East Asian markets because they could easily undermine the growth prospects of the heavily export-dependent East Asian economies. When the yen fell, that is exactly what happened. Korea and most of the other economies of East and Southeast Asia immediately ran into difficulties exporting, which eventually cut short their expansions with repercussions for Japanese exporters, Japanese multinational investors, and the world economy as a whole."
JL