***** 0135 GMT, 000125 Japan Rising From Its Pacifism Stratfor Commentary
The Japanese Parliament announced Jan. 21 that it will begin a formal, five-year review of its constitution. The document, penned under the auspices of U.S. Gen. Douglas MacArthur after Japan's defeat in World War II, renounces the use of force to resolve international disputes. The announcement of the document's review came just days after a panel of advisors to Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi recommended that the nation should not sit content with "a course of unilateral pacifism."...
Beneath the larger strategic level, Japan has had many tactical excuses in recent years to reevaluate its current defense policy. For example, Japan was unable to join in the U.N. effort in the Gulf War, except by contributing money and minesweepers. In the December 1996 hostage crisis at the Japanese Embassy in Peru, Tokyo was hamstrung and the incident dragged on for more than three weeks. The Japanese resolve was again tested in 1998, when North Korea tested ballistic missiles in Japanese waters. And then last September, the clash in East Timor brought Asian nations into action, despite their traditional policy of non-interference. Japan's current defense guidelines made it all but impossible for its troops to participate.
The changing political and social climate has not been immediate. Many signs have emerged over the past year. The most notable was the revision in the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) guidelines to allow Japan to move beyond territorial waters to provide rear-area logistical and search and rescue support to the United States. If George W. Bush is elected in the 2000 U.S. presidential elections, that trend could accelerate. In the Jan.-Feb. issue of Foreign Affairs, one of Bush's foreign policy advisors recommended that Tokyo increase its role in East Asian Security, again in concert with Washington.
Other factors suggest that Japan is gearing up for a more assertive regional role. In December 1999, the military requested budget allocation for an in-air refueling aircraft -- an item on its agenda since 1996 -- arguing that it would cut noise pollution. These planes would give Japan the capability to attack foreign territory, clearly contradicting the country's pacifist stance. Again, the proposal was rejected, but only after a struggle that pitted the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Liberal Party against certain members of the LDP and the New Komeito. The military will restate the request when the fiscal 2001 budget comes up for discussion.
But there is yet another harbinger to Japan's rising militarism: a new generation coming into its adulthood. More than 60 percent of the population is now under 50 years old, born after the end of World War II. Nearly 30 percent is under 25 and knows the war only through grandparents' memories....
The younger members of the population are also responsible for a recent resurgence in nationalism, a trend that is easily evident in the nation's media. Many of the current generation grew up watching Anime "Space Cruiser Yamato," a popular Japanese cartoon known in the United States as Star Blazers. In the cartoon, the protagonists dredge up the sunken Japanese World War II battleship Yamato and refurbish it as a spacecraft to save all Earth. More recently, in the film-length Anime "Silent Service," the crew of a joint U.S.-Japanese nuclear submarine declares its sovereignty as an independent nation, provoking the two nations to prepare for battle.
The country's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- a strong advocate of constitutional review -- seems intent on speeding up the transfer of power to the younger [sic] generations. The LDP has proposed an age limit of 80 [!] for representing the party in parliament and would like to see the new legislation approved before the next general election, set for sometime before October 2000....The proposal will likely meet a great deal of resistance....
Without a doubt, Japan is preparing to move past the onus of World War II and resume operations as a "normal" nation, with the will and wherewithal to protect its interests -- eventually, without U.S. assistance. The change, especially sweeping symbolic statements like constitutional review, will take years. Japan will have to weigh its new assertive nature carefully against the suspicion sure to emerge from its neighbors. Nevertheless, its unnatural "unilateral pacifism" will some day be a remnant of the past.
<http://www.indg.org/japan.htm> *****