Country risk index

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Mon Jul 16 01:39:17 PDT 2001


On Mon, 16 Jul 2001, Daniel Davies wrote:


> That thing I half-wrote on "How To Default" may become topical in the
> next couple of weeks -- if it does, I will finish it.

Oh do! It's relevant now! You have to think about lead time :o)

Besides, don't you just have to change the names? I thought the main reason you had to revise it because was because it didn't really apply to Cote D'Ivoire because so much of its debt was intergovernmental -- but that it applied pretty much as written to a Latin American big debtor like Mexico or Argentina.

I still think that's great little piece deserves to get published. Argentina doesn't need to default to make the idea relevant that countries might not fall off the edge if they do. Au contraire, it's the fact that no one dares to that makes it relevant.

Of course, if you feel you need to expand the argument to field new objections -- like what about private company debt and what happened to Ecuador -- there could be no better spur than posting it to the list again with the names changed and inviting comment.

Michael

__________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com



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