from Post-moratorium Panel Data"
BY: HASHEM DEZHBAKHSH
Emory University
Department of Economics
PAUL H. RUBIN
Emory University
JOANNA MEHLHOP SHEPHERD
Emory University
Department of Economics
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Paper ID: Emory University Economics Working Paper No. 01-01
Date: February 2001
Contact: PAUL H. RUBIN
Email: Mailto:prubin at emory.edu
Postal: Emory University
Department of Economics
Atlanta, GA 30322 USA
Phone: 404-727-6365
Fax: 630-604-9609
Co-Auth: HASHEM DEZHBAKHSH
Email: Mailto:econhd at emory.edu
Postal: Emory University
Department of Economics
Atlanta, GA 30322 USA
Co-Auth: JOANNA MEHLHOP SHEPHERD
Email: Mailto:jmehlho at emory.edu
Postal: Emory University
Department of Economics
Atlanta, GA 30322 USA
ABSTRACT:
Evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment is
important for many states that are currently considering a
change in their position on the issue. Existing studies use only
Ehrlich's data - U.S. aggregate time-series for 1933-1969 and
state level cross-sectional data for 1940 and 1950 - or minor
extensions that lack evidence after the 1972-1976 Supreme Court
imposed moratorium on capital punishment. For the first time, we
examine the deterrent hypothesis using county-level
post-moratorium panel data. The procedure we employ overcomes
the aggregation problem, eliminates the bias arising from
unobserved heterogeneity, and offers an inference which is
relevant for the current crime level. Our results suggest that
capital punishment has a strong deterrent effect. An increase in
any of the three probabilities - arrest, sentencing, or
execution - tends to reduce the crime rate. In particular, each
execution results, on average, in 18 fewer murders - with a
margin of error of plus and minus 10. Tests show that results
are not driven by "tough" sentencing laws.
Keywords: capital punishment, deterrence
JEL Classification: K0, K4