-----Original Message----- From: Glen Barry [mailto:gbarry at forests.org] Sent: 26 June 2001 23:47 To: Recipient list suppressed Subject: FORESTS: Amazon Forest Could Vanish Fast
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06/26/01 OVERVIEW & COMMENTARY by Forests.org Yet another scientific study calls into question the medium term sustainability of the Amazon rainforest. A new model predicts that current deforestation rates of about one percent per year in the rainforests of the Amazon River basin in Brazil could within a decade push the rainforests past the point where they can sustain themselves. The new model incorporates feedback mechanisms. The model's innovation lies in identifying problematic interactions between direct threats such as logging and mining, climate feedback that could bring far less rain to the remaining fragmented forests, and loss of essential species that help sustain the rainforest ecosystem. Indeed, feedbacks between deforestation and reduced precipitation are already evident, as Brazilian drought conditions have reduced hydropower capacity and lead to a major energy crisis. The research shows that if there is no immediate and aggressive action to change current agricultural, mining and logging practices, the Amazon rainforest could pass "the point of no return" in 10 to 15 years; and could essentially disappear within 40 to 50 years. Along with the more rigorous and conservative findings of the recent study in Science (see Forests.org at http://forests.org/ to access), there is strong scientific evidence emerging that the Amazon is threatened as never before.
Shortly Forests.org will be launching a campaign to press for the Brazilian government to discontinue planned massive infrastructure developments in the Amazon, and to recommitment itself to sustainable development. The time is now to take a stand (final?) for the World's rainforests. The demise and complete destruction of the Amazon rainforest is reaching the point of being irreversible. The future of the Amazon rainforest and millions of species that depend upon it for their survival - including quite possibly Homo sapiens - is being determined right now. g.b.
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ITEM #1 Title: Amazon Rainforest Could be Unsustainable Within a Decade Source: Copyright 2001 BBC News Online Date: June 26, 2001 Byline: By Cat Lazaroff
EDINBURGH, Scotland, June 26, 2001 (ENS) - Within a decade, there could be no more tropical rainforests to save, warns a Penn State- Abington researcher. The problem lies in the interactions between direct threats such as logging and mining, climate feedback that could bring far less rain to the remaining fragmented forests, and loss of essential species that help sustain the rainforest ecosystem.
Using the two million square mile Amazon River Basin as an example, Professor James (Bud) Alcock said his research shows that if there is no immediate and aggressive action to change current agricultural, mining and logging practices, the rainforest could pass "the point of no return" in 10 to 15 years.
Working from his office on campus, Alcock, professor of environmental sciences, has developed a mathematical model to study the effect of human driven deforestation. Current deforestation rates of about one percent per year in the Amazon River Basin rainforest in Brazil could push the rainforests past the point where they can sustain themselves within a decade, Alcock argues.
The other key tropical rainforests are in the Congo River Basin in Africa and Southeast Asia.
Rainforests are dependent on high levels of precipitation brought on by daily rain, and a healthy forest holds onto the rain and returns it to the atmosphere so it can be recycled - a process called evapotranspiration. Without a healthy base of vegetation, water runoff occurs at a higher rate, and it creates the potential for a highly unstable rainforest system.
While others have studied the effect of tropical rainforest deforestation on regional and global climates, Alcock said his study differs because it focuses on the local impact of the issues. In the Amazon River Basin, for example, loss of the forest would likely cause the extinction of many species of animals that thrive in such an environment, he said.
These species not only depend on the rainforest, Alcock said - the rainforest also depends on its wildlife. For example, insects are needed to pollinate flowers and recycle fallen foliage, while many birds and small mammals are required to spread the seeds of vegetation to help new trees and bushes to grow in clearcut areas.
"There are already a large number of species that are endangered, because the forest itself is endangered," said Alcock. "We might be able to keep a few animals at the zoos, but we'd surely lose a lot of amphibians, reptiles and insects. We couldn't take them all."
Alcock's model indicates that the rainforest could essentially disappear within 40 to 50 years. That is a far cry from the common belief among researchers that the forest is still 75 to 100 years away from total deterioration, if current patterns prevail, said Alcock.
"Because of the way tropical rainforests work, they are dependent on trees to return water to the air," said Alcock, noting that the sheer size of the Amazon River Basin has already been reduced by about 25 percent.
"This interdependence of climate and forest means risks to the forests are much closer at hand than what we might expect, and we're doing very little because of the priorities of Brazil and The Congo," Alcock noted. "It's a very difficult problem because of several pressures. For example, you cannot say, 'leave the rainforests alone' when people are living in poverty."
There are those who espouse preserving small portions of the rainforest, but Alcock said damage to the overall system would probably limit the rain necessary to do that. Less rain could also mean more forest fires, further threatening the balance of the rainforest.
Alcock presented his findings on Monday at a joint conference of the Geology Society of America and the Geology Society of London titled, "Earth System Processes," in Edinburgh, Scotland.
Alcock said he decided to do the research so he could better explain the concept of feedback - exemplified by precipitation and evapotranspiration in the rainforest - to students in one of his introductory courses on earth systems. He hopes to advance his future studies by visiting the Amazon River Basin, or collaborating with someone who has done field research there.
ITEM #2 Title: Amazon forest 'could vanish fast' Source: Copyright 2001 BBC News Online Date: June 25, 2001 Byline: BBC News Online's environment correspondent Alex Kirby
The destruction of the Amazon rainforest could be irreversible within a decade, according to a US scientist.
James Alcock, of Pennsylvania State University, says the forest could virtually disappear within half a century.
His estimate of the possible rate of destruction is faster than most others and Mr Alcock, professor of environmental sciences at Penn State's Abington College, says the danger lies in a complex feedback process.
Research published in the journal Science earlier this year suggesting that deforestation rates in the Amazon could reach 42% by 2020 were based on unreliable facts and "ecological futurology", Brazil's science and technology ministry said.
Point of no return
But Professor Alcock's forecast, based on a mathematical model of human-driven deforestation, is starker still.
Without immediate and forceful action to change current agricultural, mining and logging practices, he says, the forest could pass the point of no return in 10 to 15 years.
And the model indicates that the forest, far from having 75 or 100 years to reach total collapse as other researchers predict, could essentially disappear within 40 or 50 years.
Professor Alcock is presenting his findings at a conference in Scotland being held jointly by the Geology Societies of America and London.
He hopes to develop his research with fieldwork in the Amazon, although he argues that his model is also a useful predictor of what could happen in the other great tropical forest systems, in south east Asia and the Congo river basin in Africa.
Professor Alcock, who says the size of the Amazon river basin has already been reduced by about 25%, believes the threat lies in a process known as evapotranspiration, in which the rain that falls on a forest is retained and then returned to the atmosphere.
But without a healthy vegetation base, he says, there is little to stop the water running off, and this creates the potential for a highly unstable forest system.
Risks are close
"Because of the way tropical rainforests work, they are dependent on trees to return water to the air", he said.
"This interdependence of climate and forest means risks to the forests are much closer at hand than we might expect.
"It's a very difficult problem because of several pressures. For example, you can't say: 'Leave the rainforests alone' when people are living in poverty."
Professor Alcock says plans to preserve small areas of forest would probably not work, because damage to the overall system would limit the rain necessary for their survival.
Less rain falling on the forest could also increase the likelihood of fires.
Another consequence he foresees is the extinction of many creatures that depend on the forest for survival.
Professor Alcock said: "There are already a large number of species that are endangered, because the forest itself is endangered.
Estimates 'exaggerated'
"We might be able to keep a few animals at the zoos, but we'd surely lose a lot of amphibians, reptiles and insects."
However, Philip Stott, professor of biogeography at the University of London, UK, told BBC News Online: "This model sounds to me to be highly simplistic in political, economic and ecological terms.
"Many scientists believe that deforestation estimates are greatly exaggerated, and that in the Amazon 87% may still be intact - perhaps more.
"There's always a lot of secondary regeneration, and you'd have to take that into account in any modelling."
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