>http://www.tieconomy.com/articles/japansfunk.htm
Well, they're not *too* worried. The consensus seems to be a 10% chance. The mighty C. Fred Bergsten declares: "There is very little risk that the United States will become overconfident and suffer a severe economic reversal as Japan did a decade ago." No sign of overconfidence in that sentence!
Like I said before, though, one big difference is that the BoJ kept raising rates for over a year after the Japanese stock market peaked on the last trading day of 1989; the Fed has been easing pretty aggressively.
Doug