-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Dennis Robert Redmond Enviada em: quinta-feira, 29 de março de 2001 22:37 Para: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Assunto: Re: RES: The bourgoisie worries about the Japanization of the US economy
On Thu, 29 Mar 2001, Alexandre Fenelon wrote:
> 4-How many time a currency account debt is sustainable withouth
> causing major damage to economy. It´s a situation very similar to
> Brazil, where we´ve been suffering intermitent low intensity crisis
> since 1995, while sustaining 4-5% of current account deficit. Of
> course, this deficit is in foreign currency, unlike yours.
Brazil's real economic performance in the 1990s has been disastrous; per capita GDP grew only a tiny bit between 1990 and 1999 (data from <http://www.globalpolicynetwork.org/data/brazil/brazil-analysis.pdf>). Not a hopeful sign for the US.
-- Dennis
-But there are some important diferences, I think. One of them is the -catasthrophic increase in public debt since 1994. It increased from 30% -to 50% of The GNP. To make things even worse, those debt is short-term, -and interest rates are too high. Something like 40% of our budget is -used to pay debts, and, despit this, debt as GNP fraction doesn´t decrease. -Even worse, we have sold almost all of our state owned enterprises, many -of them to foreign buyers (with an adverse effect in our current account -debt). On the other side, I don´t know data about our family savings. -But as your debt is in US currency, the result will not be so bad. PS: After currency stabilization in 1994, growth rate increased to 2,7% annual (1,3% real increase). All the other parameters (expect inflantion) worsened.
Alexanre