`Recession is unavoidable' in 2001, economic research firm predicts BY DAVID A. SYLVESTER , Mercury News
One of the nation's best-known economic research firms, breaking with the consensus of economists, now predicts the United States will slip into a recession by the end of the year -- the first time the firm has officially announced a recession since 1990.
``A recession is unavoidable,'' said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York City. ``It's only gotten worse.''
The institute made a similar call in February 1990 -- five months before the 1990-91 recession started. Then, just as now, most economists, including Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites), were expecting the country would stumble along with weak growth but avoid a recession.
A recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of declining growth in production, employment, sales and income. The U.S. fought off a sharp slowdown in the mid-1990s but has not had an official recession in a decade.
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