Arms race aporia

Ian Murray seamus2001 at home.com
Fri May 11 23:55:53 PDT 2001


http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/12/world/12MISS.html May 12, 2001 Talks Don't Calm Foes of Antimissile Plan

By PATRICK E. TYLER

MOSCOW, May 11 - After a week of consultations with allies and former adversaries, the Bush administration has failed to overcome deep concerns over whether its proposal to erect a broad array of missile defenses and abandon a major arms control treaty would undermine the strategic balance and promote an arms race.

An American team led by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz was still wrapping up its meeting with top Foreign Ministry officials here today when the ministry spokesman, Aleksandr Yakovenko, announced that the American delegation had not addressed Russia's fundamental questions.

"The United States has been unable to give us arguments to convince us that they see clearly how to solve the problems of international security without damaging disarmament agreements which have stood for 30 years," Mr. Yakovenko said.

It was a message that echoed the skepticism expressed from London to Berlin and Tokyo to Seoul. China, which regards American missile defense plans as a threat to cancel the effectiveness of its small nuclear missile force, was conspicuously absent from the list of countries consulted thus far this week.

Moscow's message today included a new warning from military leaders that "Russia possesses the technical, intellectual and technological potential" to respond to a unilateral American deployment of missile defenses. Prominent Russian foreign policy specialists have hinted that Russia may provide China with technologies to strengthen or expand its nuclear arsenal.

But there were also strong hints today that Moscow was continuing to press in private for a prominent role in a missile defense program that would bind it more closely with Europe and the United States, a strategy that might leave China more isolated. In any case, the almost unanimous chorus of alarm in Europe has allowed Moscow to appear less confrontational. Military leaders here were under strict instructions last week not to publicly criticize President Bush's May 1 speech on his missile defense plan until promised consultations took place.

As three American teams fanned out across continents this week, many countries tried to convey receptivity to new ideas on how to confront the threat from "rogue" nations that are arming themselves with ballistic missiles. But they also emphasized that Mr. Bush continued to withhold critical details about how his missile defense proposal would be accomplished, who would participate, who would not and how nations left outside the umbrella might react.

Mr. Wolfowitz acknowledged this problem during his stop in Berlin. "It is much too early, I think, even for us to ask people to agree with us," he said, "because we have not come to firm conclusions yet ourselves."

Speaking in Helsinki today, Russia's foreign minister, Igor D. Ivanov, who travels to Washington next week to meet Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, said, "We live in hope, and Russia will do everything it can to ensure that as a result of these talks, international security will be strengthened and no harm will be done to anyone's interests."

But Mr. Ivanov added, "In matters of strategic stability, it pays to act in a way that does not cause any harm."

Though Russian officials made no public mention of the fact that Mr. Wolfowitz was chosen to lead the American delegation here, the diplomatic corps took note that the White House had sent to Moscow a senior official associated with formulating a harder line toward Russia.

In a March interview with a British newspaper, Mr. Wolfowitz said Russia was one of the worst proliferators of missile technology, adding, "these people seem to be willing to sell anything to anyone for money."

"It recalls Lenin's phrase that the capitalists will sell the very rope from which we will hang them," he said.

Since those remarks, public comments by Mr. Wolfowitz have been more restrained and constructive. When he emerged from the Foreign Ministry today, he stood silent as Stephen J. Hadley, the deputy national security adviser, made a brief statement.

"The fact that we are meeting and opening this dialogue is a sign of progress," Mr. Hadley said. "It is a first step in a consultation process which will continue over the weeks ahead and include discussions and consultations between our two presidents."

This evening, after the Wolfowitz group met with top military leaders here and departed for Washington, the Russian general staff issued a harsher statement saying that Mr. Bush's initial approach to missile defense was "mistaken" and warned that a "unilateral withdrawal" by the United States from the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty would incite a Russian response "to ensure the interests of its security and the security of its allies."

A military spokesman, Col. Gen. Valery L. Manilov, added that Russia continued to press for a "joint" approach to missile threats in which Russia would participate with "the Americans, the Europeans and other partners."

President Vladimir V. Putin, who has been pressing for an early summit meeting with Mr. Bush, was silent today. In his only response to Mr. Bush's May 1 speech, Mr. Putin said he wanted a "constructive" dialogue with "our American partners." But, he added, "the existing system of international security must not be destroyed, and joint work on its improvement is needed."

Two other Bush delegations visited Turkey and India today. In Ankara, Marc Grossman, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, seemed to suggest that America's missile defense program would cast a broader net of protection than previously stated.

"We hope there will be as wide a participation as possible in the development of such a system," Mr. Grossman said. "This is about protecting all countries," he added, and not about making "any country more vulnerable."

In New Delhi, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage emerged "delighted" from talks with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who has applauded Mr. Bush's proposal to make further reductions in nuclear arsenals. But like most leaders consulted this week, Mr. Vajpayee offered no endorsement for the Bush missile defense plan.

For his part, Mr. Armitage said that the American defense shield as now envisaged was "one which is directed only against a handful of missiles" and that the shield might actually forestall an arms race by making it unnecessary for some states to produce ballistic missiles "as a response to a threat from a neighbor."

It was not clear whether his reference was aimed at China, whose nuclear arsenal is likely to be expanded - something India regards as a threat - in response to missile defenses that would weaken the credibility of China's nuclear arsenal.

Mr. Armitage also singled out Pakistan today as a possible "rogue" state - along with North Korea, Iran and Iraq - whose missile programs were of concern to the United States.

While Mr. Armitage was in New Dehli, the Chinese prime minister, Zhu Rongji, was holding consultations with Pakistan's leaders.



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